Roda vs FC Eindhoven – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Roda vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Eindhoven make the trip to Parkstad Limburg Stadion to face Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Friday 26 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Roda (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's home record at Parkstad Limburg Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Roda. A 0.80 PPG lead over FC Eindhoven (1.60 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 10 meetings: Roda 3W, FC Eindhoven 2W, 5D.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Apr 2026, ended 3–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Roda goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
FC Eindhoven goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Roda 59% versus FC Eindhoven 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Roda 49% | FC Eindhoven 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Roda 2.05 xG and FC Eindhoven 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Roda attack 0.879 / defence 0.814 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.787 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing Roda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 48 Roda games / 49 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Roda 63% | Draw 20% | FC Eindhoven 16%. Fair-value odds: Roda 1.59 | Draw 5.00 | FC Eindhoven 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Roda (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Roda 60% | FC Eindhoven 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Roda vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Parkstad Limburg Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 26 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Roda 63% | Draw 20% | FC Eindhoven 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Roda 2.05 / FC Eindhoven 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Roda attack 0.879 / def 0.814 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.787 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Roda (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.05
Roda xG
Expected Goals
0.94
FC Eindhoven xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Roda vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 26 February 2027 at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
Where is Roda vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion.
What competition is Roda vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Roda vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Roda a 63% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Roda and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Roda vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Record (10 meetings): Roda 3W | Draws 5 | FC Eindhoven 2W.
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in?
Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Roda's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.05. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.79x) against Roda's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 48/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
63%
1.58
20%
4.88
16%
6.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
Roda xG
Total xG
2.99
0.94
FC Eindhoven xG
1.58
63%
Home win
4.88
20%
Draw
6.12
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
25%
4.04
2%
47.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.3 | 9.7 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.9%.
How many goals are Roda and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for Roda and 0.94 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Roda vs FC Eindhoven?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Roda come into this having played 49 games, going 17W 19D 13L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-D. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.18 PPG from 49 outings (17W 7D 25L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Roda against 1.18 for FC Eindhoven. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Roda's home form reads 6W 10D 8L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.17 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 0.88 points per game from 24 outings (6W 3D 15L).
Attack vs Defence
Roda are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.35 scored and 1.88 conceded.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Roda
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Roda and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Roda have gone 17W 19D 13L in their last 49 games (1.43 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 7D 25L in their last 49 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Roda at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Roda's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Roda at home: 1.17 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Roda have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Roda
5
Draws
2
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Roda have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Roda and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Roda and FC Eindhoven?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Roda 58%, FC Eindhoven 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Roda) and 62% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Roda home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Roda play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Roda's recent matches and 46% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Roda vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Roda's recent games and 62% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Roda and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Roda have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.