NAC Breda 2-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as NAC Breda welcome Roda to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 4 February 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, NAC Breda stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Rat Verlegh Stadion this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rat Verlegh Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Roda have recorded 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 road games this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Roda are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for NAC Breda, 0 for Roda and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
NAC Breda trading profile (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Roda trading profile (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 44% versus Roda 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 48% | Roda 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.04 xG and Roda 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / defence 0.762 | Roda attack 1.199 / defence 1.079. League average goals — home 1.133 / away 1.406. NAC Breda's defence rating of 0.762 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 23 NAC Breda games / 23 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 28% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.32 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 40% | Roda 70%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Feb 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 30% | Draw 28% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 47% | xG NAC Breda 1.04 / Roda 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 0.850 / def 0.762 | Roda attack 1.199 / def 1.079 | league avg home 1.133 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.04
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Roda xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Roda kick off?
NAC Breda vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 February 2022 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
NAC Breda 2 - 2 Roda.
Where is NAC Breda vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Roda part of?
NAC Breda vs Roda is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 30% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both NAC Breda and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
Record (1 meetings): NAC Breda 0W | Draws 1 | Roda 0W.
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-L. Roda (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates NAC Breda's attack at 0.85x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.04 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.28 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
30%
3.33
28%
3.58
42%
2.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.04
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
2.32
1.28
Roda xG
3.33
30%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.38
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
28%
3.61
35%
2.83
Win to Nil
8%
12.01
15%
6.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.6 | 8.1 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.04 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.28 for Roda, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.26 PPG on a 7W 8D 8L record — D-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda's form line: 11W 7D 5L from 23 games, 1.74 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Roda are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Venue Form
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.82 PPG from 11 outings (5W 5D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.26 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Roda have gone 6W 3D 2L from 11 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
NAC Breda are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 2.09 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Roda in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 23 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Roda in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 7W 8D 8L in their last 23 games (1.26 PPG), while Roda have gone 11W 7D 5L in their last 23 (1.74 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.82 PPG; Roda away: 1.91 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Roda in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 May 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: NAC Breda have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Roda?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 4, Roda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2024, when Roda 0-5 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Roda?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
NAC Breda see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 46%, Roda 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (NAC Breda) and 73% (Roda). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 18% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 54% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 64% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of NAC Breda's matches and 73% of Roda's.
Do NAC Breda and Roda tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Roda in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
NAC Breda and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and Roda finished level at 2-2 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.04 xG and Roda 1.28 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 0.85 / defence 0.76 against Roda attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 30% | Draw 28% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 48%, Roda 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. NAC Breda (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.