NAC Breda 3-0 MVV – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 80%, yet other data sources diverge — this NAC Breda vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
NAC Breda host MVV at Rat Verlegh Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 22 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rat Verlegh Stadion, NAC Breda have gone 3W 1D 1L this season (5 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.90 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's away record: 1W 0D 4L from 5 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.10 PPG (NAC Breda) versus 1.20 (MVV). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
MVV in-play and half-time data (11 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 46% versus MVV 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 54% | MVV 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 2.91 xG and MVV 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.251 / defence 0.974 | MVV attack 0.616 / defence 1.819. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.347. NAC Breda carry an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — their λ of 2.91 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. MVV bring a strong defensive rating of 1.819 — this is suppressing NAC Breda's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 NAC Breda games / 11 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 80% | Draw 13% | MVV 7%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 1.25 | Draw 7.69 | MVV 14.29. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (80%) — a 73pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 3.72. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.72 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is NAC Breda at 80% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.72 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 72% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: NAC Breda 60% | MVV 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 80% | Draw 13% | MVV 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 52% | xG NAC Breda 2.91 / MVV 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.251 / def 0.974 | MVV attack 0.616 / def 1.819 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.347 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (80%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.91
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
0.81
MVV xG
52%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs MVV kick off?
NAC Breda vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 October 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs MVV?
NAC Breda 3 - 0 MVV.
Where is NAC Breda vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs MVV part of?
NAC Breda vs MVV is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 80% chance of winning, MVV a 7% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both NAC Breda and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and MVV?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and MVV in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. MVV (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.90 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.25x league average) is weighed against MVV's defensive record (1.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.91. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 11/11 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
80%
1.25
13%
7.98
7%
13.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.91
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.72
0.81
MVV xG
1.25
80%
Home win
7.98
13%
Draw
13.40
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
5%
18.32
Win to Nil
36%
2.80
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 7.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 8.1 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.2 | 5.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 4.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.91 expected goals for NAC Breda and 0.81 for MVV, a combined total of 3.72.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 80%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
NAC Breda come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 3D 5L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, MVV sit at 1.36 PPG from 11 outings (5W 0D 6L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-W across their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: NAC Breda on 1.09 PPG, MVV on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
NAC Breda's home form reads 3W 1D 1L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.09 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, MVV have taken 0.60 points per game from 5 outings (1W 0D 4L). That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, NAC Breda come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.36 scored and 2.64 conceded.
Last 11 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and MVV in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 3W 3D 5L in their last 11 games (1.09 PPG), while MVV have gone 5W 0D 6L in their last 11 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or MVV away?
NAC Breda's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 2.00 PPG; MVV away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and MVV runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when NAC Breda won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting MVV specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
NAC Breda
0
Draws
2
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and MVV?
From 8 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 6, MVV have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2024, when NAC Breda 1-2 MVV.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and MVV?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — NAC Breda 60%, MVV 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for NAC Breda and 60% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; MVV in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 40% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is NAC Breda vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of NAC Breda's matches and 60% of MVV's.
Do NAC Breda and MVV tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, MVV in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 3-0 hammering of MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat MVV 3-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 2.91 xG and MVV 0.81 xG, a combined 3.72. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. MVV landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.25 / defence 0.97 against MVV attack 0.62 / defence 1.82, drawn from 11/11 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 80% | Draw 13% | MVV 7%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 80%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 54%, MVV 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not.
MVV's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.09 PPG, MVV 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the NAC Breda win broke the near-deadlock. NAC Breda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.