NAC Breda 4-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this NAC Breda vs Excelsior encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 9 as NAC Breda welcome Excelsior to Rat Verlegh Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 4L from 8 outings — a 0.75 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 1.38 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for NAC Breda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
NAC Breda at Rat Verlegh Stadion this season: 1W 1D 1L from 3 home games — 1.33 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.33 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.75 — NAC Breda are significantly better at Rat Verlegh Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 5W 1D 2L from 8 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's away record: 3W 0D 1L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Excelsior — 1.25 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.00 vs 0.75). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. NAC Breda register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, Excelsior in 75% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
NAC Breda in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — NAC Breda 50% versus Excelsior 62%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (NAC Breda 62% | Excelsior 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.54 xG and Excelsior 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.062 / defence 1.170 | Excelsior attack 1.129 / defence 1.081. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.343. Data: 8 NAC Breda games / 8 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 34% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 44%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Excelsior 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.31. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.31 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.31 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: NAC Breda 67% | Excelsior 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 34% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG NAC Breda 1.54 / Excelsior 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.062 / def 1.170 | Excelsior attack 1.129 / def 1.081 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.343 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Excelsior xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does NAC Breda vs Excelsior kick off?
NAC Breda vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
NAC Breda 4 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is NAC Breda vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs Excelsior part of?
NAC Breda vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 34% chance of winning, Excelsior a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both NAC Breda and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will NAC Breda vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are NAC Breda and Excelsior in?
NAC Breda (all comps): 1W-3D-4L in 8 | 0.75 PPG | GF 1.38 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-D-L-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 5W-1D-2L in 8 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.54. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus NAC Breda's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
34%
2.98
23%
4.38
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.31
1.77
Excelsior xG
2.98
34%
Home win
4.38
23%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.87
Clean Sheet
17%
5.89
22%
4.65
Win to Nil
6%
17.54
9%
10.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 6.5 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.0 | 8.8 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.77 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.31.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 8 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 0.75 PPG on a 1W 3D 4L record — W-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for NAC Breda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 5W 1D 2L from 8 games, 2.00 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 1.25 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against NAC Breda.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 0.75 PPG overall — NAC Breda are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
NAC Breda are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.12 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 62%.
Last 8 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are NAC Breda and Excelsior in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 1W 3D 4L in their last 8 games (0.75 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 5W 1D 2L in their last 8 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.33 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between NAC Breda and Excelsior runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Excelsior have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 May 2024, when NAC Breda won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
NAC Breda's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
NAC Breda
1
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and Excelsior?
From 6 meetings on record, NAC Breda have won 2, Excelsior have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when NAC Breda 0-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Excelsior see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — NAC Breda at 67%, Excelsior at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for NAC Breda and 100% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 67% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: NAC Breda keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Excelsior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when NAC Breda play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of NAC Breda's games and 67% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is NAC Breda vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of NAC Breda's matches and 100% of Excelsior's.
Do NAC Breda and Excelsior tend to score early?
NAC Breda have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant NAC Breda run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda beat Excelsior 4-1 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 9, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.54 xG and Excelsior 1.77 xG, a combined 3.31. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. NAC Breda beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.06 / defence 1.17 against Excelsior attack 1.13 / defence 1.08, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 34% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 44%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual NAC Breda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 62%, Excelsior 75%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.75. Form was overturned, with NAC Breda winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. NAC Breda (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.67 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.