NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as NAC Breda face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rat Verlegh Stadion plays host to NAC Breda versus De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie (matchday 24). Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
NAC Breda have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
NAC Breda's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
De Graafschap's record over their last 10 games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling, De Graafschap have posted 6W 0D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 2 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 3 Nov 2023, ended NAC Breda 0–1 De Graafschap — a De Graafschap win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
NAC Breda half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — NAC Breda 72% and De Graafschap 54% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (NAC Breda 67% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects NAC Breda 1.72 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: NAC Breda attack 1.001 / defence 1.019 | De Graafschap attack 1.141 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.629 / away 1.349. Data: built from NAC Breda's last 60 games and De Graafschap's last 61.
Result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34%. Fair-value odds: NAC Breda 2.46 | Draw 3.98 | De Graafschap 2.92. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 66% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% — both xG figures (1.72 / 1.57) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates NAC Breda as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on NAC Breda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (NAC Breda's last 10 home games and De Graafschap's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: NAC Breda 80% (last 10 home games) | De Graafschap 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: NAC Breda vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 24 | Venue: Rat Verlegh Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 February 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% (Under 36%) | BTTS Yes 66% (No 34%) | xG NAC Breda 1.72 / De Graafschap 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: NAC Breda attack 1.001 / def 1.019 | De Graafschap attack 1.141 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.629 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
NAC Breda xG
Expected Goals
1.57
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ NAC Breda vs De Graafschap FAQs
What time does NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kick off?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 2 February 2024 at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What was the final score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
NAC Breda 0 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Rat Verlegh Stadion.
What competition is NAC Breda vs De Graafschap part of?
NAC Breda vs De Graafschap is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 24) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives NAC Breda a 41% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both NAC Breda and De Graafschap will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will NAC Breda vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
NAC Breda's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (1.14x) against NAC Breda's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from NAC Breda's last 60 games and De Graafschap's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
41%
2.46
25%
3.98
34%
2.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
NAC Breda xG
Total xG
3.29
1.57
De Graafschap xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.92
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
21%
4.80
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
8%
11.81
6%
16.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.4 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.7 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 5.0 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ NAC Breda vs De Graafschap Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are NAC Breda and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for NAC Breda and 1.57 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for NAC Breda vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 61 outings, NAC Breda have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 28W 9D 24L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
De Graafschap's form line: 28W 10D 23L from 61 games, 1.54 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.52 PPG for NAC Breda against 1.54 for De Graafschap. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, NAC Breda have posted 1.62 PPG from their last 29 home games (14W 5D 10L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 12W 5D 12L from their last 29 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
NAC Breda are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.66 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda have seen both teams score in 72% of their recent games.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
NAC Breda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
NAC Breda (Home) vs De Graafschap (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
NAC Breda
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ NAC Breda vs De Graafschap Form FAQs
What form are NAC Breda and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
NAC Breda have gone 28W 9D 24L in their last 61 games (1.52 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 28W 10D 23L in their last 61 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — NAC Breda at home or De Graafschap away?
NAC Breda's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — NAC Breda at home: 1.62 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.41 PPG.
Have NAC Breda or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
NAC Breda have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, NAC Breda have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
NAC Breda
2
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ NAC Breda vs De Graafschap H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, NAC Breda have won 3, De Graafschap have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did NAC Breda and De Graafschap last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: De Graafschap 1-2 NAC Breda.
Who has won more matches between NAC Breda and De Graafschap?
NAC Breda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
NAC Breda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 72% for NAC Breda, 59% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for NAC Breda and 69% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = NAC Breda home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ NAC Breda vs De Graafschap Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in NAC Breda and De Graafschap matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of NAC Breda's games and 59% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are NAC Breda and De Graafschap matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of NAC Breda's matches and 69% of De Graafschap's.
Do NAC Breda and De Graafschap matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of NAC Breda's recent matches and 79% of De Graafschap's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at NAC Breda's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
NAC Breda and De Graafschap finished level at 0-0 at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting NAC Breda 1.72 xG and De Graafschap 1.57 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. NAC Breda fell 1.7 short of their projected output. De Graafschap landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of NAC Breda attack 1.00 / defence 1.02 against De Graafschap attack 1.14 / defence 1.06, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it NAC Breda 41% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 34%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (NAC Breda 67%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
NAC Breda's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
De Graafschap's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — NAC Breda 1.52 PPG, De Graafschap 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. NAC Breda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.48 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.76 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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