MVV 3-3 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 64% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Jong PSV U21 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
MVV host Jong PSV U21 at De Geusselt in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 February 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, MVV have posted 4W 3D 3L at De Geusselt — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 1W 5D 4L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, MVV have the edge — a 1.10 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.80) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for MVV, 1 for Jong PSV U21 and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2023, ended 3–2 with MVV winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
MVV in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 65% and Jong PSV U21 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 68% | Jong PSV U21 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 2.61 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.250 / defence 0.928 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.105 / defence 1.256. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.309. Jong PSV U21 bring a strong defensive rating of 1.256 — this is suppressing MVV's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 MVV games / 63 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: MVV 64% | Draw 19% | Jong PSV U21 17%. Fair-value odds: MVV 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | Jong PSV U21 5.88. The model has a clear lean to MVV (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.95. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.95 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (2.61 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, MVV are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 75% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 69% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: MVV 50% | Jong PSV U21 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Monday 19 Feb 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 64% | Draw 19% | Jong PSV U21 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% | BTTS 69% | xG MVV 2.61 / Jong PSV U21 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.250 / def 0.928 | Jong PSV U21 attack 1.105 / def 1.256 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.309 • Poisson stance: MVV (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.61
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Jong PSV U21 xG
69%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
56%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
MVV vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 February 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
MVV 3 - 3 Jong PSV U21.
Where is MVV vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
MVV vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 64% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both MVV and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): MVV 2W | Draws 2 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are MVV and Jong PSV U21 in?
MVV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from MVV's attack rating (1.25) and Jong PSV U21's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 2.61 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.8%. Close behind: 3-1 (7.6%), 1-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
64%
1.57
19%
5.19
17%
5.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 1
6.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.61
MVV xG
Total xG
3.95
1.34
Jong PSV U21 xG
1.57
64%
Home win
5.19
19%
Draw
5.87
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
56%
Over 3.5
1.79
44%
Under 3.5
2.27
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.44
31%
BTTS No
3.26
Clean Sheet
26%
3.83
7%
13.59
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
1%
79.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 6.7 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.8%.
How many goals are MVV and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 2.61 expected goals for MVV and 1.34 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 3.95.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Jong PSV U21?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
MVV's recent record stands at 27W 10D 26L from 63 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Jong PSV U21, meanwhile, have gone 18W 15D 30L across 63 games — 1.10 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: MVV on 1.44 PPG, Jong PSV U21 on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, MVV have managed 17W 6D 8L from 31 games — 1.84 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.44 PPG overall — MVV are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Jong PSV U21's away record stands at 7W 8D 16L across 31 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, MVV come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
MVV are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.52 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Jong PSV U21 in 67%.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 27W 10D 26L in their last 63 games (1.44 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 18W 15D 30L in their last 63 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
MVV's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.84 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
MVV's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
4
Draws
2
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Jong PSV U21?
From 10 meetings on record, MVV have won 4, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when MVV 2-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Jong PSV U21?
MVV have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — MVV at 68%, Jong PSV U21 at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for MVV and 64% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong PSV U21 in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Jong PSV U21?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of MVV's games and 68% of Jong PSV U21's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of MVV's matches and 64% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do MVV and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
MVV and Jong PSV U21 share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV and Jong PSV U21 finished level at 3-3 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 2.61 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.34 xG, a combined 3.95. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.34 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Jong PSV U21 attack 1.10 / defence 1.26, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 64% | Draw 19% | Jong PSV U21 17%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 56% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 68%, Jong PSV U21 70%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.44 PPG, Jong PSV U21 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. MVV (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.