MVV 2-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates MVV at 46%, yet in-form Dordrecht provide a compelling counter-argument — this MVV vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Dordrecht travel to De Geusselt to take on MVV in Eerste Divisie (matchday 16). The game is scheduled for Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, MVV have gone 1W 5D 4L — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
MVV at home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — MVV are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Dordrecht stand at 5W 3D 2L — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dordrecht's form when playing away from home: 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 road games (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dordrecht are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for MVV, 2 for Dordrecht and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.5 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 4 Mar 2024, ended MVV 1–3 Dordrecht — a Dordrecht win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
MVV trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 42%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Dordrecht trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 85% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 60% and Dordrecht 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (MVV 64% | Dordrecht 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: MVV surrender their half-time lead 31% of the time, while Dordrecht have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.61 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 0.937 / defence 0.919 | Dordrecht attack 0.934 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.509 / away 1.389. Data: built from MVV's last 53 games and Dordrecht's last 52.
Result probabilities: MVV 46% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 28%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.15 | Draw 3.89 | Dordrecht 3.60. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dordrecht (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on MVV offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.80 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (MVV's last 10 home games and Dordrecht's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.5 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: MVV 50% (last 10 home games) | Dordrecht 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 16 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 22 November 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 46% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG MVV 1.61 / Dordrecht 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 0.937 / def 0.919 | Dordrecht attack 0.934 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.509 / away 1.389 • Poisson stance: MVV (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Dordrecht xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ MVV vs Dordrecht FAQs
What time does MVV vs Dordrecht kick off?
MVV vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 22 November 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Dordrecht?
MVV 2 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is MVV vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Dordrecht part of?
MVV vs Dordrecht is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 16) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 46% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both MVV and Dordrecht will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will MVV vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates MVV's attack at 0.94x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus MVV's defence, projects 1.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from MVV's last 53 games and Dordrecht's last 52 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
46%
2.15
26%
3.89
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
MVV xG
Total xG
2.80
1.19
Dordrecht xG
2.15
46%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
6%
17.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.7 | 6.9 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.4 | 5.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ MVV vs Dordrecht Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are MVV and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for MVV and 1.19 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, MVV have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 18W 15D 20L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five.
Dordrecht's form line: 25W 19D 9L from 53 games, 1.77 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against MVV.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 26 home games (10W 8D 8L).
On the road, Dordrecht have gone 10W 10D 6L from their last 26 away games — 1.54 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
MVV are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.85 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 62%.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
MVV (Home) vs Dordrecht (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
MVV
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ MVV vs Dordrecht Form FAQs
What form are MVV and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 games (1.30 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 25W 19D 9L in their last 53 (1.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Dordrecht away?
Dordrecht's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.46 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.54 PPG.
Have MVV or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
MVV have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2021. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was on 6 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 25 Apr 2025, when Dordrecht won Dordrecht 3-0 MVV.
MVV's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 3W 0D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
MVV
2
Draws
4
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ MVV vs Dordrecht H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Dordrecht?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, MVV have won 4, Dordrecht have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Dordrecht last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 March 2026: Dordrecht 1-1 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 36% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 56% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 54%, Dordrecht 73% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (MVV) and 62% (Dordrecht). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ MVV vs Dordrecht Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in MVV and Dordrecht matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of MVV's games and 73% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are MVV and Dordrecht matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of MVV's matches and 62% of Dordrecht's.
Do MVV and Dordrecht matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of MVV's recent matches and 85% of Dordrecht's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as MVV edge out Dordrecht 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Dordrecht 2-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.61 xG and Dordrecht 1.19 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 0.94 / defence 0.92 against Dordrecht attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 46% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 28%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 64%, Dordrecht 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.30. Form was overturned, with MVV winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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