MVV 0-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates MVV at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this MVV vs Cambuur encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
De Geusselt plays host to MVV versus Cambuur in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off: Friday 9 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
MVV (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. MVV haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
MVV's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at De Geusselt this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Geusselt.
Cambuur's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Cambuur haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Cambuur have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in MVV's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for MVV, 1 for Cambuur and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.5 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 12 Jan 2024, ended 2–5 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
MVV half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 74% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — MVV 60% and Cambuur 79% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (MVV 71% | Cambuur 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects MVV 1.84 xG and Cambuur 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: MVV attack 1.037 / defence 0.953 | Cambuur attack 0.965 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.358. Data: 38 MVV games / 38 Cambuur games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: MVV 49% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 24%. Fair-value odds: MVV 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Cambuur 4.17. MVV hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.84 / 1.25) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is MVV at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on MVV if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.08 combined xG gives a 60% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates are neutral: MVV 40% | Cambuur 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: MVV vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: De Geusselt • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: MVV 49% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG MVV 1.84 / Cambuur 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: MVV attack 1.037 / def 0.953 | Cambuur attack 0.965 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: MVV (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
MVV xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cambuur xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does MVV vs Cambuur kick off?
MVV vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at De Geusselt.
What was the final score in MVV vs Cambuur?
MVV 0 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is MVV vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Geusselt.
What competition is MVV vs Cambuur part of?
MVV vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win MVV vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives MVV a 49% chance of winning, Cambuur a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making MVV the favourite.
Will both teams score in MVV vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both MVV and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will MVV vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): MVV 0W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are MVV and Cambuur in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. MVV (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates MVV's attack at 1.04x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.96x) against MVV's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
MVV Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.76
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
MVV xG
Total xG
3.08
1.25
Cambuur xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
16%
6.27
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
4%
26.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 10.5 | 6.5 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.7 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for MVV vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are MVV and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for MVV and 1.25 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for MVV vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, MVV have picked up 1.47 PPG on a 16W 8D 14L record — W-D-L-W-W across the most recent five. MVV haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Cambuur's form line: 13W 8D 17L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-D. Cambuur haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for MVV against 1.24 for Cambuur. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, MVV have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 7W 2D 10L from 19 away games — 1.21 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
MVV are averaging 1.68 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.87 scored and 1.95 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: MVV have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Cambuur in 79%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
MVV
Pre-Season
Cambuur
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are MVV and Cambuur in coming into this match?
MVV have gone 16W 8D 14L in their last 38 games (1.47 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — MVV at home or Cambuur away?
MVV's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — MVV at home: 1.53 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.21 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Cambuur go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cambuur won 4-0 on 19 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, MVV have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
MVV
1
Draws
5
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between MVV and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, MVV have won 0, Cambuur have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did MVV and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 19 December 2025, when Cambuur 4-0 MVV.
Who has won more matches between MVV and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — MVV 53%, Cambuur 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for MVV and 74% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: MVV keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = MVV home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when MVV play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of MVV's games and 74% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is MVV vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of MVV's matches and 74% of Cambuur's.
Do MVV and Cambuur tend to score early?
MVV have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cambuur defy the odds to beat MVV 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cambuur beat MVV 0-1 at De Geusselt, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting MVV 1.84 xG and Cambuur 1.25 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. MVV fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of MVV attack 1.04 / defence 0.95 against Cambuur attack 0.96 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it MVV 49% | Draw 27% | Cambuur 24%, with MVV to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Cambuur win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 72% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (MVV 71%, Cambuur 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 70%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
MVV's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 79% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — MVV 1.47 PPG, Cambuur 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cambuur win broke the near-deadlock. MVV (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward. Cambuur (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.