Jong Utrecht 1-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4 plays host to Jong Utrecht versus Roda in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off: Monday 18 October 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong Utrecht (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4: 2W 0D 2L from 4 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Roda have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.50. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda's away record: 2W 1D 1L from 4 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.50 for Roda. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 30% of cases; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 50% versus Roda 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 60% | Roda 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and Roda 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.831 / defence 1.022 | Roda attack 1.019 / defence 1.207. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.334. Roda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.207 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 10 Jong Utrecht games / 10 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 26% | Roda 39%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Roda as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jong Utrecht 25% | Roda 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4 • Kick-off: Monday 18 Oct 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 26% | Roda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.30 / Roda 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.831 / def 1.022 | Roda attack 1.019 / def 1.207 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.334 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Roda kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 18 October 2021 at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Jong Utrecht 1 - 2 Roda.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Roda part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Roda is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 35% chance of winning, Roda a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Roda (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong Utrecht's attack rating (0.83) and Roda's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.02x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
35%
2.85
26%
3.87
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.69
1.39
Roda xG
2.85
35%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
25%
4.01
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
9%
11.43
11%
9.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 9.4 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.39 for Roda, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong Utrecht's recent record stands at 4W 3D 3L from 10 games, a 1.50 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 4W 3D 3L across 10 games — 1.50 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.50 PPG for Jong Utrecht against 1.50 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Jong Utrecht have managed 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 2W 1D 1L across 4 trips, a 1.75 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.90 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Roda in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 games (1.50 PPG), while Roda have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.50 PPG; Roda away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Jong Utrecht or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong Utrecht have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Roda in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 22 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 4-1 on 28 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
2
Draws
7
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, Roda have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 22 December 2025, when Jong Utrecht 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 25%, Roda 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Jong Utrecht and 75% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 50% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Roda?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 50% of Roda's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 75% of Roda's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Roda in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Roda edge out Jong Utrecht 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat Jong Utrecht 1-2 at Sportpark Zoudenbalch Veld 4, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.30 xG and Roda 1.39 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.83 / defence 1.02 against Roda attack 1.02 / defence 1.21, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 35% | Draw 26% | Roda 39%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 60%, Roda 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Roda's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 1.50 PPG, Roda 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.