Jong Utrecht 3-0 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 51%, yet in-form FC Eindhoven provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven meet at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Friday 17 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong Utrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong Utrecht at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch than their overall form suggests.
FC Eindhoven (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Eindhoven are 0.60 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.30 vs 0.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, FC Eindhoven in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to FC Eindhoven, who have claimed 8 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 9 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. FC Eindhoven have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.4 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
FC Eindhoven half-time and goal-timing data (73 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 59% versus FC Eindhoven 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 59% | FC Eindhoven 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 1.058 / defence 1.184 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.796 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.599 / away 1.483. Data: 73 Jong Utrecht games / 74 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 27%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.96 | Draw 4.55 | FC Eindhoven 3.70. Jong Utrecht hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.40) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Utrecht at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Eindhoven (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 22% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.36 combined xG gives a 65% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 65%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 80% | FC Eindhoven 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 17 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 65% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.96 / FC Eindhoven 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 1.058 / def 1.184 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.796 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.599 / away 1.483 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.96
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.40
FC Eindhoven xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 April 2026 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong Utrecht 3 - 0 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 51% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 27% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 8W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against FC Eindhoven's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.96. Flip it around — FC Eindhoven's attack (0.80x) against Jong Utrecht's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.40.
These ratings are built from 73/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
51%
1.97
22%
4.56
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.5%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.96
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.36
1.40
FC Eindhoven xG
1.97
51%
Home win
4.56
22%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
25%
4.04
14%
7.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.98
4%
25.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.96 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.40 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 73 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.85 PPG on a 14W 20D 39L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 26W 14D 33L from 73 games, 1.26 PPG, last five L-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.41 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.11 PPG from 37 outings (10W 11D 16L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 6D 17L from 37 away games — 1.30 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.96 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.45 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 14W 20D 39L in their last 73 games (0.85 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 26W 14D 33L in their last 73 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or FC Eindhoven away?
FC Eindhoven's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.11 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Eindhoven won 0-6 on 5 Nov 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 0D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC Eindhoven — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
0
Draws
8
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Jong Utrecht 3-0 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 62%, FC Eindhoven 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Jong Utrecht) and 60% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 30% of games; FC Eindhoven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong Utrecht's games and 49% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 60% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong Utrecht and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong Utrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Utrecht beat FC Eindhoven 3-0 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 37, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.96 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.40 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Jong Utrecht beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. FC Eindhoven landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.06 / defence 1.18 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.80 / defence 1.16, drawn from 73/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 51% | Draw 22% | FC Eindhoven 27%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 59%, FC Eindhoven 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.26 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Jong Utrecht winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.81 average — tighter than their form line. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.