Jong Utrecht 0-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Den Bosch at Stadion Galgenwaard in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 8 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 2W 0D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 0.60 points per game. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong Utrecht have posted 4W 1D 5L at Stadion Galgenwaard — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Jong Utrecht are significantly better at Stadion Galgenwaard than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Den Bosch away from home this season: 1W 0D 9L from 10 away games — 0.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 0.60 PPG, Den Bosch 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jong Utrecht, 2 for Den Bosch and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Jan 2023, ended 4–1 with Jong Utrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 48% versus Den Bosch 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 52% | Den Bosch 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.808 / defence 0.957 | Den Bosch attack 0.738 / defence 1.538. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.326. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.538 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 73 Jong Utrecht games / 73 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 65% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 16%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Jong Utrecht (65%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.06 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Jong Utrecht 40% | Den Bosch 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadion Galgenwaard • Kick-off: Monday 8 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 65% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 54% | xG Jong Utrecht 2.12 / Den Bosch 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.808 / def 0.957 | Den Bosch attack 0.738 / def 1.538 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.326 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Den Bosch xG
54%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 May 2023 at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Galgenwaard.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 65% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 16% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.54x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.12. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 10.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
65%
1.55
20%
5.05
16%
6.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.06
0.94
Den Bosch xG
1.55
65%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
6.41
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
25%
3.95
2%
53.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 0.94 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.88 PPG on a 18W 10D 45L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 24W 8D 41L from 73 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.88 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 0.92 PPG from 36 outings (10W 3D 23L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 7W 5D 24L from 36 away games — 0.72 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.18 scored and 1.93 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 18W 10D 45L in their last 73 games (0.88 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 24W 8D 41L in their last 73 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Den Bosch away?
Jong Utrecht's home record (0.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.92 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Jan 2023, when Jong Utrecht won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Utrecht
3
Draws
5
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 2, Den Bosch have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 33%, Den Bosch 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jong Utrecht) and 58% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 53% of games; Den Bosch in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 47% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jong Utrecht's recent games and 58% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong Utrecht's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Galgenwaard, Regular Season - 36, as Jong Utrecht and Den Bosch drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 2.12 xG and Den Bosch 0.94 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Den Bosch landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.81 / defence 0.96 against Den Bosch attack 0.74 / defence 1.54, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 65% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 16%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 52%, Den Bosch 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Den Bosch's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.88 PPG, Den Bosch 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.53 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.31 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.