Jong Utrecht 0-2 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Utrecht at 41%, yet in-form Almere City FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host Almere City FC at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Utrecht stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Utrecht's home record at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Almere City FC have recorded 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Almere City FC have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Almere City FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.30 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Almere City FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2022, ended 1–2 with Almere City FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong Utrecht in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Almere City FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Utrecht 53% versus Almere City FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 60% | Almere City FC 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.44 xG and Almere City FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.710 / defence 0.937 | Almere City FC attack 0.923 / defence 1.223. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.400. Jong Utrecht's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 1.44 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Almere City FC bring a strong defensive rating of 1.223 — this is suppressing Jong Utrecht's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Jong Utrecht games / 47 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Almere City FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong Utrecht are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Almere City FC (1.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Utrecht offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral: Jong Utrecht 30% | Almere City FC 60%.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.44 / Almere City FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.710 / def 0.937 | Almere City FC attack 0.923 / def 1.223 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: Jong Utrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Almere City FC xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Jong Utrecht 0 - 2 Almere City FC.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 41% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 30% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jong Utrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jong Utrecht 0W | Draws 1 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Almere City FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (0.71x league average) is weighed against Almere City FC's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Almere City FC's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Utrecht Win
41%
2.45
29%
3.47
30%
3.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
2.65
1.21
Almere City FC xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
3.30
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
24%
4.22
Win to Nil
12%
8.22
7%
13.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.5 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.21 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Utrecht come into this having played 47 games, going 12W 8D 27L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-D. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Almere City FC sit at 1.15 PPG from 47 outings (15W 9D 23L), a run that reads L-L-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Utrecht on 0.94 PPG, Almere City FC on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong Utrecht's home form reads 6W 2D 15L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.87 PPG return.
Away from home, Almere City FC have taken 1.09 points per game from 23 outings (7W 4D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.77 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.74 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 12W 8D 27L in their last 47 games (0.94 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 15W 9D 23L in their last 47 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 0.87 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Almere City FC go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Sep 2025, when Almere City FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting Almere City FC specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Jong Utrecht
1
Draws
5
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 0, Almere City FC have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Jong Utrecht 2-3 Almere City FC.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 35%, Almere City FC 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 48% for Jong Utrecht and 78% for Almere City FC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 52% of games; Almere City FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Jong Utrecht's recent matches and 70% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Utrecht vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 48% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 78% of Almere City FC's.
Do Jong Utrecht and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Almere City FC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Jong Utrecht 0-2 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.44 xG and Almere City FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 0.71 / defence 0.94 against Almere City FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.22, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 41% | Draw 29% | Almere City FC 30%, with Jong Utrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Almere City FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 60%, Almere City FC 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Utrecht 0.94 PPG, Almere City FC 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.