Jong PSV U21 6-4 Vitesse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 40% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Jong PSV U21 face Vitesse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Vitesse travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21 in Eerste Divisie (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Jong PSV U21 stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Jong PSV U21 have gone 2W 2D 6L in their last 10 home games (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Vitesse — last 10 games: 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Vitesse away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 0.70 PPG versus Vitesse's 0.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 90% of Jong PSV U21's games and 60% of Vitesse's (from Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Jong PSV U21, 0 for Vitesse and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Oct 2024, ended Jong PSV U21 3–1 Vitesse — a Jong PSV U21 win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 81% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%.
Vitesse trading profile (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 83%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 36% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 66% and Vitesse 58% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 74% | Vitesse 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.01 xG and Vitesse 1.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.016 / defence 1.541 | Vitesse attack 0.910 / defence 1.309. League average goals — home 1.510 / away 1.372. Vitesse's defence rating of 1.309 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Jong PSV U21's projected output up. Jong PSV U21's defence rating of 1.541 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Vitesse's projected output up. Data: built from Jong PSV U21's last 57 games and Vitesse's last 19.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 37%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.50 | Draw 4.29 | Vitesse 2.73. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 75% | BTTS Yes probability 75% | Total xG 3.93. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 75% — a total xG of 3.93 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 75% — both xG figures (2.01 / 1.92) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 75% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jong PSV U21's last 10 home games and Vitesse's last 10 away games) averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 75%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Jong PSV U21 90% (last 10 home games) | Vitesse 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse | Competition: Eerste Divisie, matchday 20 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 20 December 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 75% (Under 25%) | BTTS Yes 75% (No 25%) | xG Jong PSV U21 2.01 / Vitesse 1.92 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.016 / def 1.541 | Vitesse attack 0.910 / def 1.309 | league avg home 1.510 / away 1.372 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.92
Vitesse xG
75%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
75%
Over 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse FAQs
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 20 December 2024 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse?
Jong PSV U21 6 - 4 Vitesse.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse is a Eerste Divisie fixture (matchday 20) (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 40% chance of winning, Vitesse a 37% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse?
Our model estimates a 75% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 75%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.02) and Vitesse's defence rating (1.31), the model arrives at 2.01 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Vitesse's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jong PSV U21's last 57 games and Vitesse's last 19 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (7.6%), 2-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
40%
2.50
23%
4.29
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
7.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.93
1.92
Vitesse xG
2.50
40%
Home win
4.29
23%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
75%
Over 2.5
1.33
25%
Under 2.5
4.00
55%
Over 3.5
1.82
45%
Under 3.5
2.22
36%
Over 4.5
2.78
64%
Under 4.5
1.56
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
75%
BTTS Yes
1.33
25%
BTTS No
4.02
Clean Sheet
15%
6.84
13%
7.46
Win to Nil
6%
17.09
5%
20.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.0 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 3.9 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.6 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 2.3 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 5.1 | 4.9 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.92 for Vitesse, a combined total of 3.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 0.92 PPG on a 13W 10D 30L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five.
Vitesse's form line: 10W 13D 30L from 53 games, 0.81 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 0.92 PPG, Vitesse on 0.81. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 0.81 PPG from their last 26 home games (5W 6D 15L).
On the road, Vitesse have gone 6W 3D 17L from their last 26 away games — 0.81 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 2.08 conceded per game recently; Vitesse are on 1.02 scored and 2.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
Jong PSV U21 (Home) vs Vitesse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jong PSV U21
Blended
Vitesse
Blended
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse Form FAQs
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 13W 10D 30L in their last 53 games (0.92 PPG), while Vitesse have gone 10W 13D 30L in their last 53 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Vitesse away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (0.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.81 PPG; Vitesse away: 0.81 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2024. All of them came in Eerste Divisie. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vitesse have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Vitesse specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Jong PSV U21
0
Draws
3
Vitesse
Recent Meetings
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Jong PSV U21 have won 2, Vitesse have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Vitesse 3-1 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse?
Vitesse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 62% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 77%, Vitesse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 81% for Jong PSV U21 and 69% for Vitesse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 65% and 58% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vitesse in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Vitesse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jong PSV U21 vs Vitesse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Jong PSV U21's games and 50% of Vitesse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 81% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 69% of Vitesse's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Vitesse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 81% of Jong PSV U21's recent matches and 77% of Vitesse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 cruise to a comfortable 6-4 victory over Vitesse.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Vitesse 6-4 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 20, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.01 xG and Vitesse 1.92 xG, a combined 3.93. The scoreboard read 6-4 for 10 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 beat their projection by 4.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Vitesse outscored their 1.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.02 / defence 1.54 against Vitesse attack 0.91 / defence 1.31, drawn from 57/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 23% | Vitesse 37%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 10, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 75% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 74%, Vitesse 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Vitesse's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.92 PPG, Vitesse 0.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 1.62 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 2.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Vitesse (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 6 against a 2.42 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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