Jong PSV U21 2-2 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees FC Volendam travel to PSV Campus De Herdgang to take on Jong PSV U21. The game is scheduled for Monday 4 April 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 4W 3D 3L at PSV Campus De Herdgang — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Jong PSV U21 are significantly better at PSV Campus De Herdgang than their overall form suggests.
FC Volendam — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L L D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, FC Volendam have posted 3W 6D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. FC Volendam are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 1 for FC Volendam and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Dec 2021, ended 2–3 with FC Volendam winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Volendam trading profile (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 58% and FC Volendam 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 61% | FC Volendam 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG and FC Volendam 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.182 / defence 1.257 | FC Volendam attack 0.816 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.430. Data: 31 Jong PSV U21 games / 32 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 35%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | FC Volendam 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.57 / 1.47) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong PSV U21 at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form FC Volendam (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong PSV U21 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.04 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 50% | FC Volendam 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Monday 4 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG Jong PSV U21 1.57 / FC Volendam 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.182 / def 1.257 | FC Volendam attack 0.816 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.47
FC Volendam xG
62%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 4 April 2022 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Jong PSV U21 2 - 2 FC Volendam.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 40% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
Record (1 meetings): Jong PSV U21 0W | Draws 0 | FC Volendam 1W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong PSV U21's attack rating (1.18) and FC Volendam's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Volendam's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
40%
2.53
25%
3.93
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.04
1.47
FC Volendam xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.60
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
9%
10.95
7%
13.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 7.0 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.1 | 8.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.47 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 31 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 10W 6D 15L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five.
FC Volendam's form line: 18W 9D 4L from 31 games, 2.03 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-L.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (7W 3D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Jong PSV U21 are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Volendam have gone 7W 7D 1L from 15 away games — 1.87 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.10 scored and 1.32 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 68%.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
FC Volendam
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 10W 6D 15L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 18W 9D 4L in their last 31 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.60 PPG; FC Volendam away: 1.87 PPG.
Have Jong PSV U21 or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong PSV U21 have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC Volendam have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Apr 2025, when FC Volendam won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Volendam specifically: 0W 1D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Jong PSV U21
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2025, when FC Volendam 4-0 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
FC Volendam see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 60%, FC Volendam 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Jong PSV U21) and 40% (FC Volendam).
On the defensive side: FC Volendam in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC Volendam?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Jong PSV U21's games and 60% of FC Volendam's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 67% of Jong PSV U21's recent games and 40% of FC Volendam's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 87% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 32, as Jong PSV U21 and FC Volendam drew 2-2 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 1.57 xG and FC Volendam 1.47 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.18 / defence 1.26 against FC Volendam attack 0.82 / defence 1.08, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 40% | Draw 25% | FC Volendam 35%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 61%, FC Volendam 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.