Jong PSV U21 1-1 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 38 as Jong PSV U21 welcome FC Eindhoven to PSV Campus De Herdgang. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 May 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong PSV U21 stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong PSV U21 at PSV Campus De Herdgang this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Jong PSV U21) versus 1.50 (FC Eindhoven). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong PSV U21 register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, FC Eindhoven in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Jong PSV U21, 0 for FC Eindhoven and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Jong PSV U21 trading profile (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
FC Eindhoven trading profile (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 64% and FC Eindhoven 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong PSV U21 63% | FC Eindhoven 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.141 / defence 1.069 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.957 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.687 / away 1.311. Data: 75 Jong PSV U21 games / 75 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 25%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.85 | Draw 4.76 | FC Eindhoven 4.00. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.40. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.40 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.06 / 1.34) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong PSV U21 as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.40 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | FC Eindhoven 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: PSV Campus De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 19 May 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.06 / FC Eindhoven 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.141 / def 1.069 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.957 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.687 / away 1.311 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.06
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Eindhoven xG
64%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 May 2023 at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 1 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at PSV Campus De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 54% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 25% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
Record (3 meetings): Jong PSV U21 2W | Draws 1 | FC Eindhoven 0W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong PSV U21's attack at 1.14x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 2.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
54%
1.85
21%
4.71
25%
4.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.06
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
3.40
1.34
FC Eindhoven xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.71
21%
Draw
4.05
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.55
36%
BTTS No
2.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
13%
7.85
Win to Nil
14%
7.06
3%
31.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 9.2 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.5 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 2.06 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.34 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 3.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Jong PSV U21 have picked up 1.17 PPG on a 23W 19D 33L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
FC Eindhoven's form line: 36W 17D 22L from 75 games, 1.67 PPG, last five D-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong PSV U21.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong PSV U21 have posted 1.43 PPG from 37 outings (15W 8D 14L).
On the road, FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 10D 13L from 37 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.68 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Current Season
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 23W 19D 33L in their last 75 games (1.17 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 36W 17D 22L in their last 75 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Jong PSV U21's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 1.43 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: FC Eindhoven have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Dec 2025, when FC Eindhoven won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
5
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, FC Eindhoven have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 13 March 2026, when Jong PSV U21 1-2 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong PSV U21 62%, FC Eindhoven 51% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 70% (Jong PSV U21) and 49% (FC Eindhoven). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 46% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play FC Eindhoven?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong PSV U21's games and 51% of FC Eindhoven's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 49% of FC Eindhoven's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 and FC Eindhoven finished level at 1-1 at PSV Campus De Herdgang, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.34 xG, a combined 3.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.96 / defence 1.07, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 54% | Draw 21% | FC Eindhoven 25%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 63%, FC Eindhoven 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.