Jong AZ 0-0 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Jong AZ and Emmen meet at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Monday 22 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Jong AZ's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 4W 1D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.62 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.62 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Emmen (all games): 8W 1D 1L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.50 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Emmen have gone 5W 2D 1L from 8 away fixtures this term (2.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Emmen are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (15 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong AZ 47% versus Emmen 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Jong AZ 40% | Emmen 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 0.82 xG and Emmen 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 0.667 / defence 0.853 | Emmen attack 0.843 / defence 0.985. League average goals — home 1.249 / away 1.598. Jong AZ's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 15 Jong AZ games / 15 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 26% | Draw 31% | Emmen 43%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 3.85 | Draw 3.23 | Emmen 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.97. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.97 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.97 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. This conflicts with form data: Jong AZ 50% | Emmen 75% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 22 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 26% | Draw 31% | Emmen 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 38% | xG Jong AZ 0.82 / Emmen 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 0.667 / def 0.853 | Emmen attack 0.843 / def 0.985 | league avg home 1.249 / away 1.598 • Poisson stance: Emmen (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Emmen xG
38%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Emmen kick off?
Jong AZ vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 November 2021 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Jong AZ 0 - 0 Emmen.
Where is Jong AZ vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Emmen part of?
Jong AZ vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 26% chance of winning, Emmen a 43% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Jong AZ and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 0.67x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 0.82 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.84x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 0-1 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
26%
3.83
31%
3.27
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
1.97
1.15
Emmen xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.61
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
32%
3.16
44%
2.27
Win to Nil
8%
12.10
19%
5.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 16.0 | 9.2 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.7%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.15 for Emmen, a combined total of 1.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 15 games, going 6W 2D 7L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.93 PPG from 15 outings (9W 2D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.60 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 4W 1D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 2.12 points per game from 8 outings (5W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.60 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Emmen in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 6W 2D 7L in their last 15 games (1.33 PPG), while Emmen have gone 9W 2D 4L in their last 15 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.62 PPG; Emmen away: 2.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Emmen won 3-0 on 8 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Jong AZ
2
Draws
4
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 2, Emmen have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2026, when Jong AZ 2-3 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 50%, Emmen 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Jong AZ) and 62% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: Jong AZ have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Jong AZ's games and 75% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Jong AZ's recent games and 62% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong AZ and Emmen tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Emmen in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Jong AZ's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 15, as Jong AZ and Emmen drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 0.82 xG and Emmen 1.15 xG, a combined 1.97. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jong AZ fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Emmen landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 0.67 / defence 0.85 against Emmen attack 0.84 / defence 0.98, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 26% | Draw 31% | Emmen 43%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 40%, Emmen 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (15 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Emmen's trading profile (15 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.