Jong AZ 3-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong AZ at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong AZ vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong AZ host Dordrecht at AFAS Trainingscomplex in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 26 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong AZ — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 7W 0D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Dordrecht stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.30. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong AZ at 1.60 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Jong AZ have won 3, Dordrecht 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Jan 2024, ended 5–1 with Jong AZ winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
Dordrecht in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 68% and Dordrecht 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong AZ 72% | Dordrecht 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 2.30 xG and Dordrecht 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.559 / defence 1.004 | Dordrecht attack 1.217 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.291. Jong AZ carry an above-average attack strength of 1.559 — their λ of 2.30 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Dordrecht have an above-average attack strength of 1.217 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 40 Jong AZ games / 40 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 24%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Dordrecht 4.17. Jong AZ hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 74% | BTTS probability 73% | Total xG 3.88. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 74% — a total xG of 3.88 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 73% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong AZ at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong AZ offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 3.88 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 74% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 73% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 80% | Dordrecht 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 26 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 74% | BTTS 73% | xG Jong AZ 2.30 / Dordrecht 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.559 / def 1.004 | Dordrecht attack 1.217 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.490 / away 1.291 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Dordrecht xG
73%
BTTS
92%
Over 1.5
74%
Over 2.5
54%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kick off?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 26 August 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Jong AZ 3 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht part of?
Jong AZ vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 52% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 73% probability that both Jong AZ and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 74%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Record (6 meetings): Jong AZ 3W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 2W.
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong AZ's attack at 1.56x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus Jong AZ's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (8.5%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 24% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
52%
1.92
24%
4.25
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
3.88
1.58
Dordrecht xG
1.92
52%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
90%
Over 1.5
1.11
10%
Under 1.5
10.00
74%
Over 2.5
1.35
26%
Under 2.5
3.85
54%
Over 3.5
1.85
46%
Under 3.5
2.17
35%
Over 4.5
2.86
65%
Under 4.5
1.54
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
73%
BTTS Yes
1.37
27%
BTTS No
3.73
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
10%
9.96
Win to Nil
11%
9.29
2%
40.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.1 | 3.3 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.6%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Jong AZ and 1.58 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong AZ come into this having played 40 games, going 17W 8D 15L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.82 PPG from 40 outings (19W 16D 5L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong AZ on 1.48 PPG, Dordrecht on 1.82. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong AZ's home form reads 13W 2D 5L across 20 games on their own ground, a 2.05 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.48 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (8W 9D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Jong AZ are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.92 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Dordrecht in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 17W 8D 15L in their last 40 games (1.48 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 19W 16D 5L in their last 40 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or Dordrecht away?
Jong AZ's home record (2.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 2.05 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Jong AZ or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jong AZ have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Jan 2024, when Jong AZ won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong AZ's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Jong AZ
3
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 4, Dordrecht have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and Dordrecht?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong AZ at 55%, Dordrecht at 80%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Jong AZ and 65% for Dordrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 45% and 55% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jong AZ's games and 80% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Jong AZ's matches and 65% of Dordrecht's.
Do Jong AZ and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong AZ cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Dordrecht 3-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 2.30 xG and Dordrecht 1.58 xG, a combined 3.88. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.56 / defence 1.00 against Dordrecht attack 1.22 / defence 0.99, drawn from 40/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 52% | Draw 24% | Dordrecht 24%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 74%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 54% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 73% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 72%, Dordrecht 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.48 PPG, Dordrecht 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.