Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Roda (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Jong Ajax face Roda.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Ajax host Roda at Sportcomplex De Toekomst in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 19 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jong Ajax at Sportcomplex De Toekomst this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.30 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form points away from home here. Roda's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Jong Ajax's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Jong Ajax have won 2, Roda 4, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2025, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Roda in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 49% versus Roda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 52% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.14 xG and Roda 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.746 / defence 1.033 | Roda attack 1.024 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.708 / away 1.528. Jong Ajax's attack strength of 0.746 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 60 Jong Ajax games / 59 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 26% | Draw 26% | Roda 48%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 3.85 | Draw 3.85 | Roda 2.08. Roda hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Roda offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 50% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Sportcomplex De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 19 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 26% | Draw 26% | Roda 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 55% | xG Jong Ajax 1.14 / Roda 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.746 / def 1.033 | Roda attack 1.024 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.708 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Roda (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Roda xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Roda kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 19 January 2026 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Jong Ajax 2 - 2 Roda.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Roda part of?
Jong Ajax vs Roda is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 26% chance of winning, Roda a 48% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jong Ajax and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): Jong Ajax 2W | Draws 3 | Roda 4W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Roda (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 0.75x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
26%
3.78
26%
3.92
48%
2.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.76
1.62
Roda xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
2.08
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.04
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
5%
19.03
15%
6.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.3 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.62 for Roda, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax's recent record stands at 12W 14D 33L from 59 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 22W 17D 20L across 59 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-D-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.56 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Ajax heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jong Ajax have managed 8W 10D 12L from 30 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 10W 8D 12L across 30 trips, a 1.27 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.44 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Roda in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 12W 14D 33L in their last 59 games (0.85 PPG), while Roda have gone 22W 17D 20L in their last 59 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.13 PPG; Roda away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Roda runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 19 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Roda specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
4
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Roda have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 19 January 2026, when Jong Ajax 2-2 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 40%, Roda 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Jong Ajax) and 67% (Roda).
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 40% of Jong Ajax's games and 70% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Jong Ajax's recent games and 67% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jong Ajax and Roda tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jong Ajax and Roda share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax and Roda finished level at 2-2 at Sportcomplex De Toekomst, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.14 xG and Roda 1.62 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.75 / defence 1.03 against Roda attack 1.02 / defence 0.90, drawn from 60/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 26% | Draw 26% | Roda 48%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 52%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.85. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.