Jong Ajax 1-4 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 38 sees Jong AZ travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Jong Ajax at Sportpark De Toekomst this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Jong Ajax) versus 1.40 (Jong AZ). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 2 for Jong AZ and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 2–5 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 68% and Jong AZ 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Ajax 64% | Jong AZ 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.65 xG and Jong AZ 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.868 / defence 0.879 | Jong AZ attack 0.825 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.650 / away 1.364. Data: 75 Jong Ajax games / 75 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 51% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 21%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.96 | Draw 3.57 | Jong AZ 4.76. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.64 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 49% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 40% | Jong AZ 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Friday 10 May 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 51% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Jong Ajax 1.65 / Jong AZ 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.868 / def 0.879 | Jong AZ attack 0.825 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.650 / away 1.364 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Jong AZ xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 May 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Jong Ajax 1 - 4 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 51% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 21% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Jong Ajax and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Record (5 meetings): Jong Ajax 1W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 2W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (0.87) and Jong AZ's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.65 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.3%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
51%
1.96
28%
3.59
21%
4.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.64
0.99
Jong AZ xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
4.77
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
19%
5.26
4%
24.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.1 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.7 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.99 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jong Ajax come into this having played 75 games, going 22W 20D 33L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-D-L.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.39 PPG from 75 outings (29W 17D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.15 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jong Ajax's home form reads 15W 10D 12L across 37 games on their own ground, a 1.49 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.95 points per game from 37 outings (9W 8D 20L). That's a step down from their 1.39 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Jong AZ's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.57 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 64%.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Jong AZ
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 22W 20D 33L in their last 75 games (1.15 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 29W 17D 29L in their last 75 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.49 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.49 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jong Ajax have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2023, when Jong AZ won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 2W 0D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Jong Ajax
2
Draws
5
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 3, Jong AZ have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Jong AZ 1-2 Jong Ajax.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Jong AZ?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 62%, Jong AZ 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Jong Ajax and 65% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Jong Ajax's games and 68% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Jong Ajax's matches and 65% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong Ajax and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Jong Ajax.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat Jong Ajax 1-4 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 38, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.65 xG and Jong AZ 0.99 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 0.99 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.87 / defence 0.88 against Jong AZ attack 0.82 / defence 1.15, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 51% | Draw 28% | Jong AZ 21%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Jong AZ win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 64%, Jong AZ 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.15 PPG, Jong AZ 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.84 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.