Jong Ajax 2-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 34 as Jong Ajax welcome Cambuur to Sportpark De Toekomst. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Jong Ajax's home record at Sportpark De Toekomst: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Cambuur — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong Ajax at 1.20 PPG versus Cambuur's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jong Ajax, 1 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 6.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2023, ended 2–4 with Cambuur winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Ajax 69% and Cambuur 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 66% | Cambuur 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.48 xG and Cambuur 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 0.850 / defence 0.903 | Cambuur attack 1.006 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.622 / away 1.404. Data: 71 Jong Ajax games / 33 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 42% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 32%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 2.38 | Draw 3.85 | Cambuur 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.75. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.75 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jong Ajax as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.75 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Jong Ajax 30% | Cambuur 70%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 15 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 42% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Jong Ajax 1.48 / Cambuur 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 0.850 / def 0.903 | Cambuur attack 1.006 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.622 / away 1.404 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cambuur xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Cambuur kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 15 April 2024 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Jong Ajax 2 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur part of?
Jong Ajax vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 42% chance of winning, Cambuur a 32% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Jong Ajax and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
Record (1 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Cambuur in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Jong Ajax's attack at 0.85x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 71/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
42%
2.40
26%
3.83
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.75
1.27
Cambuur xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 8.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.0 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.9 | 5.7 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 1.27 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.75.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong Ajax come into this having played 67 games, going 20W 18D 29L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-L.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 0.96 PPG from 67 outings (18W 10D 39L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.16 PPG, Cambuur on 0.96. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Jong Ajax's home form reads 13W 8D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.42 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.00 points per game from 33 outings (9W 6D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.84 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.37 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong Ajax have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 20W 18D 29L in their last 67 games (1.16 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 18W 10D 39L in their last 67 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Cambuur away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.42 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Nov 2025, when Cambuur won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Jong Ajax
1
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 2, Cambuur have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2026, when Jong Ajax 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 58%, Cambuur 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Jong Ajax and 64% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cambuur in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jong Ajax's games and 61% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Ajax vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Jong Ajax's matches and 64% of Cambuur's.
Do Jong Ajax and Cambuur tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Ajax edge out Cambuur 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Cambuur 2-1 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 34, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.48 xG and Cambuur 1.27 xG, a combined 2.75. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 0.85 / defence 0.90 against Cambuur attack 1.01 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 42% | Draw 26% | Cambuur 32%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 66%, Cambuur 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.16 PPG, Cambuur 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.