Helmond Sport 1-3 Willem II – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Helmond Sport at 40%, yet in-form Willem II provide a compelling counter-argument — this Helmond Sport vs Willem II fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Willem II travel to GS Staalwerken Stadion to take on Helmond Sport. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 October 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Helmond Sport stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Helmond Sport's home record at GS Staalwerken Stadion: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Willem II have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Willem II, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Willem II's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Willem II are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
In-Play Profile
Helmond Sport in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Willem II in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 50% versus Willem II 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 61% | Willem II 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 1.63 xG and Willem II 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.905 / defence 1.097 | Willem II attack 1.029 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.640 / away 1.363. Data: 48 Helmond Sport games / 10 Willem II games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 40% | Draw 24% | Willem II 36%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Willem II 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.63 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Helmond Sport at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Willem II (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Helmond Sport offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Helmond Sport 50% | Willem II 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs Willem II | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: GS Staalwerken Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 40% | Draw 24% | Willem II 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG Helmond Sport 1.63 / Willem II 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.905 / def 1.097 | Willem II attack 1.029 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.640 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: Helmond Sport (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Willem II xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs Willem II kick off?
Helmond Sport vs Willem II kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 October 2022 at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Helmond Sport 1 - 3 Willem II.
Where is Helmond Sport vs Willem II being played?
The match is being played at GS Staalwerken Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs Willem II part of?
Helmond Sport vs Willem II is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 40% chance of winning, Willem II a 36% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Helmond Sport the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Helmond Sport and Willem II will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs Willem II have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Willem II?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and Willem II in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Willem II (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Helmond Sport's attack rating (0.91) and Willem II's defence rating (1.10), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Willem II's attack versus Helmond Sport's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Helmond Sport Win
40%
2.49
24%
4.25
36%
2.75
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.17
1.54
Willem II xG
2.49
40%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
2.75
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.71
Clean Sheet
21%
4.66
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
9%
11.60
7%
14.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and Willem II expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 1.54 for Willem II, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs Willem II?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Helmond Sport have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 10W 7D 27L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Willem II's form line: 13W 9D 22L from 44 games, 1.09 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L. The sample for Willem II is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Helmond Sport on 0.84 PPG, Willem II on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Helmond Sport have posted 0.86 PPG from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
On the road, Willem II have gone 3W 5D 14L from 22 away games — 0.64 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.09 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Willem II's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Helmond Sport are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; Willem II are on 1.05 scored and 1.57 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
Willem II
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and Willem II in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 10W 7D 27L in their last 44 games (0.84 PPG), while Willem II have gone 13W 9D 22L in their last 44 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or Willem II away?
Helmond Sport's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 0.86 PPG; Willem II away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 21 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Feb 2023, when Willem II won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Helmond Sport's record when hosting Willem II specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
5
Willem II
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and Willem II?
From 6 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, Willem II have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and Willem II last play each other?
They last met on 21 December 2025, when Helmond Sport 2-2 Willem II.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and Willem II?
Willem II have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Willem II are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 59%, Willem II 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 77% for Helmond Sport and 59% for Willem II. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport have failed to score in 27% of games; Willem II in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / Willem II away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play Willem II?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Helmond Sport's games and 54% of Willem II's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Helmond Sport vs Willem II usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 77% of Helmond Sport's matches and 59% of Willem II's.
Do Helmond Sport and Willem II tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Willem II in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Willem II cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Helmond Sport.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Willem II beat Helmond Sport 1-3 at GS Staalwerken Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 1.63 xG and Willem II 1.54 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Willem II outscored their 1.54 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.91 / defence 1.10 against Willem II attack 1.03 / defence 1.10, drawn from 48/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 40% | Draw 24% | Willem II 36%, with Helmond Sport to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Willem II win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 61%, Willem II 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Willem II's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Helmond Sport 0.84 PPG, Willem II 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Willem II win broke the near-deadlock. Helmond Sport (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Willem II (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.05 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.