Helmond Sport 1-1 FC Volendam – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Volendam at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
SolarUnie Stadion plays host to Helmond Sport versus FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Friday 3 December 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Helmond Sport have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Helmond Sport, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Helmond Sport have posted 3W 1D 5L at SolarUnie Stadion — 1.11 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
FC Volendam (all games): 8W 2D 0L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.60 points per game. Last five: W D D W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam's form when playing away from home: 5W 3D 0L across 8 road games this term (2.25 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 3 clean sheets from 8 away games (38%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 62% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, FC Volendam are the stronger side — 1.70 PPG clear of the hosts (2.60 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Helmond Sport goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 59%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Helmond Sport 41% versus FC Volendam 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Helmond Sport 53% | FC Volendam 76%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Helmond Sport 0.96 xG and FC Volendam 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Helmond Sport attack 0.707 / defence 1.306 | FC Volendam attack 1.209 / defence 1.118. League average goals — home 1.210 / away 1.487. Helmond Sport's attack strength of 0.707 is below the league average — the 0.96 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Volendam have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 2.35 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 17 Helmond Sport games / 17 FC Volendam games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Helmond Sport 14% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 68%. Fair-value odds: Helmond Sport 7.14 | Draw 5.56 | FC Volendam 1.47. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (68%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.30 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Helmond Sport 44% | FC Volendam 62%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: SolarUnie Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Helmond Sport 14% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 68% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 56% | xG Helmond Sport 0.96 / FC Volendam 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Helmond Sport attack 0.707 / def 1.306 | FC Volendam attack 1.209 / def 1.118 | league avg home 1.210 / away 1.487 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (68%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
Expected Goals
2.35
FC Volendam xG
56%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam kick off?
Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 December 2021 at SolarUnie Stadion.
What was the final score in Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Helmond Sport 1 - 1 FC Volendam.
Where is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam being played?
The match is being played at SolarUnie Stadion.
What competition is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam part of?
Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our statistical model gives Helmond Sport a 14% chance of winning, FC Volendam a 68% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Helmond Sport and FC Volendam will score (BTTS).
Will Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam in?
Helmond Sport (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC Volendam (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Helmond Sport's attack at 0.71x the league average against FC Volendam's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 0.96 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — FC Volendam's attack (1.21x) against Helmond Sport's defence (1.31x) — and the away total comes out at 2.35.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 10.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 1-1 (9.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
14%
7.27
18%
5.59
68%
1.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Helmond Sport xG
Total xG
3.30
2.35
FC Volendam xG
7.27
14%
Home win
5.59
18%
Draw
1.46
68%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.26
Clean Sheet
10%
10.46
38%
2.60
Win to Nil
1%
76.11
26%
3.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 8.6 | 10.1 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 8.2 | 9.7 | 7.6 | 4.4 | 2.1 |
| 2 | 1.7 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 0.5 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Helmond Sport and 2.35 for FC Volendam, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Helmond Sport come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 3D 10L for 0.88 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Helmond Sport is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Volendam sit at 2.24 PPG from 17 outings (11W 5D 1L), a run that reads W-D-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Volendam carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.36 PPG clear of Helmond Sport — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Helmond Sport's home form reads 3W 1D 4L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Volendam have taken 2.25 points per game from 8 outings (5W 3D 0L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Helmond Sport are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; FC Volendam are on 2.53 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam in 65%.
Defensively: FC Volendam in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 17 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Helmond Sport
Blended
FC Volendam
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Helmond Sport and FC Volendam in coming into this match?
Helmond Sport have gone 4W 3D 10L in their last 17 games (0.88 PPG), while FC Volendam have gone 11W 5D 1L in their last 17 (2.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Helmond Sport at home or FC Volendam away?
FC Volendam's away record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Helmond Sport at home: 1.25 PPG; FC Volendam away: 2.25 PPG.
Have Helmond Sport or FC Volendam been keeping clean sheets recently?
Helmond Sport have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Volendam in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
FC Volendam go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 4-1 on 25 Feb 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Helmond Sport have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Volendam — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Helmond Sport
1
Draws
3
FC Volendam
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
From 4 meetings on record, Helmond Sport have won 0, FC Volendam have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Helmond Sport and FC Volendam last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when FC Volendam 3-1 Helmond Sport.
Who has won more matches between Helmond Sport and FC Volendam?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Helmond Sport are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Helmond Sport 38%, FC Volendam 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Helmond Sport and 62% for FC Volendam. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Helmond Sport keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; FC Volendam in 38%; Helmond Sport have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Helmond Sport home games / FC Volendam away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Helmond Sport play FC Volendam?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Helmond Sport's recent matches and 62% of FC Volendam's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Helmond Sport vs FC Volendam usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Helmond Sport's matches and 62% of FC Volendam's.
Do Helmond Sport and FC Volendam tend to score early?
Helmond Sport have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Volendam in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Helmond Sport and FC Volendam share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at SolarUnie Stadion, Regular Season - 18, as Helmond Sport and FC Volendam drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Helmond Sport 0.96 xG and FC Volendam 2.35 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. FC Volendam landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Helmond Sport attack 0.71 / defence 1.31 against FC Volendam attack 1.21 / defence 1.12, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Helmond Sport 14% | Draw 18% | FC Volendam 68%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Helmond Sport 53%, FC Volendam 76%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Helmond Sport's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.
FC Volendam's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.50 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.