FC Volendam 3-1 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Volendam (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC Volendam face MVV.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
MVV make the trip to Kras Stadion to face FC Volendam in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
FC Volendam have collected 2.40 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 3D 0L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for FC Volendam, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Volendam at Kras Stadion this season: 9W 0D 1L from 10 home games — 2.70 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Kras Stadion.
MVV (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
MVV's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward FC Volendam. A 0.90 PPG lead over MVV (2.40 vs 1.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Volendam lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC Volendam goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
MVV goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 64% and MVV 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 70% | MVV 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 2.37 xG and MVV 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 1.301 / defence 0.789 | MVV attack 0.873 / defence 1.156. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.342. FC Volendam carry an above-average attack strength of 1.301 — their λ of 2.37 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Volendam's defence rating of 0.789 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 22 FC Volendam games / 60 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 69% | Draw 19% | MVV 12%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | MVV 8.33. The model has a clear lean to FC Volendam (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Volendam at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: FC Volendam 40% | MVV 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 69% | Draw 19% | MVV 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 55% | xG FC Volendam 2.37 / MVV 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 1.301 / def 0.789 | MVV attack 0.873 / def 1.156 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: FC Volendam (69%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
0.93
MVV xG
55%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs MVV kick off?
FC Volendam vs MVV kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs MVV?
FC Volendam 3 - 1 MVV.
Where is FC Volendam vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs MVV part of?
FC Volendam vs MVV is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 69% chance of winning, MVV a 12% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making FC Volendam the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both FC Volendam and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and MVV?
Record (3 meetings): FC Volendam 2W | Draws 1 | MVV 0W.
What form are FC Volendam and MVV in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. MVV (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (1.30) and MVV's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — MVV's attack (0.87x) against FC Volendam's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
These ratings are built from 22/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Volendam Win
69%
1.45
19%
5.33
12%
8.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.29
0.93
MVV xG
1.45
69%
Home win
5.33
19%
Draw
8.07
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
9%
10.69
Win to Nil
27%
3.66
1%
86.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 8.8 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 4 | 4.9 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for FC Volendam and 0.93 for MVV, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 69%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Volendam's recent record stands at 18W 11D 27L from 56 games, a 1.16 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for FC Volendam is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 20W 15D 21L across 56 games — 1.34 PPG, with D-L-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for FC Volendam against 1.34 for MVV. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Volendam have managed 12W 2D 13L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 8W 6D 13L across 27 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Volendam are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 2.04 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.62 scored and 1.55 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and MVV in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 18W 11D 27L in their last 56 games (1.16 PPG), while MVV have gone 20W 15D 21L in their last 56 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or MVV away?
FC Volendam's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 1.41 PPG; MVV away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Volendam won 5-0 on 27 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Volendam have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against MVV — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
FC Volendam
1
Draws
1
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and MVV?
From 5 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 3, MVV have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when MVV 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and MVV?
FC Volendam have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 44%, MVV 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Volendam and 63% for MVV. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 56% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam have failed to score in 30% of games; MVV in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of FC Volendam's recent matches and 59% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Volendam vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Volendam's matches and 63% of MVV's.
Do FC Volendam and MVV tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, MVV in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over MVV.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Volendam beat MVV 3-1 at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 2.37 xG and MVV 0.93 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 1.30 / defence 0.79 against MVV attack 0.87 / defence 1.16, drawn from 22/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 69% | Draw 19% | MVV 12%, with FC Volendam to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 70%, MVV 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
MVV's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Volendam 1.16 PPG, MVV 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Volendam win broke the near-deadlock. FC Volendam (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line. MVV (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.