FC OSS 1-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Excelsior at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Excelsior at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 18 March 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Excelsior away from home this season: 7W 1D 2L from 10 away games — 2.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 2.20 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.30 PPG versus Excelsior's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 1, Excelsior 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with FC OSS winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 73% of games (home games).
Excelsior in-play tendencies (30 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 63% and Excelsior 57% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC OSS 63% | Excelsior 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.52 xG and Excelsior 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.985 / defence 1.152 | Excelsior attack 1.148 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.463. Excelsior bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing FC OSS's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 FC OSS games / 30 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 30% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 47%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.33 | Draw 4.35 | Excelsior 2.13. Excelsior hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Excelsior as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Excelsior 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 18 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 30% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 67% | xG FC OSS 1.52 / Excelsior 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.985 / def 1.152 | Excelsior attack 1.148 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.463 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Excelsior xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Excelsior kick off?
FC OSS vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 18 March 2022 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Excelsior?
FC OSS 1 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is FC OSS vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Excelsior part of?
FC OSS vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 30% chance of winning, Excelsior a 47% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both FC OSS and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Excelsior?
Record (1 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are FC OSS and Excelsior in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
30%
3.30
23%
4.44
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.46
1.94
Excelsior xG
3.30
30%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.49
33%
BTTS No
3.05
Clean Sheet
14%
6.94
22%
4.59
Win to Nil
4%
22.93
10%
9.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 6.1 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 4.8 | 9.3 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.5 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.5%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.94 for Excelsior, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 30 games, going 8W 7D 15L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.93 PPG from 30 outings (18W 4D 8L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five.
Excelsior carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.90 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 5W 4D 6L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 2.07 points per game from 15 outings (10W 1D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 2.30 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC OSS have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 30 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Current Season
Excelsior
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Excelsior in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 8W 7D 15L in their last 30 games (1.03 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 18W 4D 8L in their last 30 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Excelsior away?
Excelsior's away record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.27 PPG; Excelsior away: 2.07 PPG.
Have FC OSS or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 13% of their recent games, Excelsior in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Excelsior 2-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Excelsior?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — FC OSS at 73%, Excelsior at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 73% for FC OSS and 67% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 73% of FC OSS's games and 60% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 73% of FC OSS's matches and 67% of Excelsior's.
Do FC OSS and Excelsior tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS and Excelsior share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS and Excelsior finished level at 1-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.52 xG and Excelsior 1.94 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Excelsior landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.98 / defence 1.15 against Excelsior attack 1.15 / defence 1.22, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 30% | Draw 23% | Excelsior 47%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 63%, Excelsior 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (30 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (30 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.03. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.27 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.