FC OSS 3-1 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Excelsior at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 9 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC OSS stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Frans Heesen Stadion, FC OSS have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Excelsior — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.60 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Excelsior haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Excelsior away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 3.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Excelsior — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, FC OSS have won 1, Excelsior 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 18 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
FC OSS in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 82% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 95% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 45% versus Excelsior 68%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 47% | Excelsior 82%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.74 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.880 / defence 1.077 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.717 / away 1.358. Data: 38 FC OSS games / 0 Excelsior games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: FC OSS 47% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 25%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Excelsior 4.00. FC OSS hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC OSS as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Excelsior 70% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (0 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 47% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 61% | xG FC OSS 1.74 / Excelsior 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.880 / def 1.077 | Excelsior attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.717 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Excelsior xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Excelsior kick off?
FC OSS vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Excelsior?
FC OSS 3 - 1 Excelsior.
Where is FC OSS vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Excelsior part of?
FC OSS vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 47% chance of winning, Excelsior a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC OSS and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Excelsior?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | Excelsior 0W.
What form are FC OSS and Excelsior in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. FC OSS (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Excelsior's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/0 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
47%
2.13
28%
3.63
25%
3.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.98
1.24
Excelsior xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.93
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
4%
22.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 11.0 | 6.8 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 5.5 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.24 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 38 games, going 10W 4D 24L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-D. FC OSS haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.00 PPG from 38 outings (9W 11D 18L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. Excelsior haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.89 PPG, Excelsior on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 7W 2D 10L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.21 PPG return.
Away from home, Excelsior have taken 0.68 points per game from 19 outings (3W 4D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC OSS come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.84 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.71 scored and 2.16 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior in 68%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Pre-Season
Excelsior
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Excelsior in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 10W 4D 24L in their last 38 games (0.89 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 9W 11D 18L in their last 38 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Excelsior away?
FC OSS's home record (1.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.21 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.68 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Excelsior runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 11 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
FC OSS's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
1
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Excelsior have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2025, when Excelsior 2-0 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Excelsior?
FC OSS have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 53%, Excelsior 74% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 47% for FC OSS and 95% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 68% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Excelsior?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC OSS's games and 74% of Excelsior's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 47% of FC OSS's matches and 95% of Excelsior's.
Do FC OSS and Excelsior tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC OSS cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Excelsior.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Excelsior 3-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.74 xG and Excelsior 1.24 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC OSS beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Excelsior attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 38/0 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 47% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 25%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 47%, Excelsior 82%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.89 PPG, Excelsior 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.