FC OSS 0-1 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 48% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC OSS vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and De Graafschap meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Friday 1 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 3W 1D 6L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 4W 0D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (1.90 vs 0.40) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: FC OSS 1W, De Graafschap 2W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.5 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2023, ended 3–3 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (53 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 47% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 57% | De Graafschap 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.730 / defence 1.346 | De Graafschap attack 0.933 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.393. FC OSS's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 1.29 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 54 FC OSS games / 53 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 48%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 3.57 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.08. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.04 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC OSS 30% | De Graafschap 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 1 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG FC OSS 1.29 / De Graafschap 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.730 / def 1.346 | De Graafschap attack 0.933 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.551 / away 1.393 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.75
De Graafschap xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 December 2023 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
FC OSS 0 - 1 De Graafschap.
Where is FC OSS vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs De Graafschap part of?
FC OSS vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 28% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 48% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both FC OSS and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.73x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.93x) against FC OSS's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 54/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
28%
3.59
25%
4.06
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.04
1.75
De Graafschap xG
3.59
28%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
17%
5.75
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
5%
20.65
13%
7.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are FC OSS and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.75 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC OSS come into this having played 53 games, going 11W 9D 33L for 0.79 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-D. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, De Graafschap sit at 1.47 PPG from 53 outings (23W 9D 21L), a run that reads L-W-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.68 PPG clear of FC OSS — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
FC OSS's home form reads 7W 3D 15L across 25 games on their own ground, a 0.96 PPG return.
Away from home, De Graafschap have taken 1.28 points per game from 25 outings (9W 5D 11L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC OSS are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.94 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.55 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 53 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 9D 33L in their last 53 games (0.79 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 23W 9D 21L in their last 53 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.28 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 0.96 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 4-0 on 22 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
FC OSS
2
Draws
7
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 1, De Graafschap have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 December 2025, when FC OSS 2-3 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 48%, De Graafschap 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for FC OSS and 72% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of FC OSS's games and 64% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of FC OSS's matches and 72% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC OSS and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out FC OSS 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC OSS 0-1 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.29 xG and De Graafschap 1.75 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC OSS fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.73 / defence 1.35 against De Graafschap attack 0.93 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 28% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 48%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 57%, De Graafschap 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (53 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (53 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.47 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.