FC OSS 1-0 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as FC OSS welcome Cambuur to Frans Heesen Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 August 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC OSS have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC OSS's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Frans Heesen Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Cambuur have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Cambuur have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (FC OSS) versus 1.10 (Cambuur). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC OSS, 1 for Cambuur and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 6.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Jan 2024, ended 2–1 with FC OSS winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC OSS 45% and Cambuur 75% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 48% | Cambuur 70%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.43 xG and Cambuur 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 1.009 / defence 1.061 | Cambuur attack 0.958 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.588 / away 1.319. Data: 40 FC OSS games / 40 Cambuur games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 34%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.63 | Draw 3.45 | Cambuur 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 80% | Cambuur 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (40 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 23 Aug 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 38% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG FC OSS 1.43 / Cambuur 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 1.009 / def 1.061 | Cambuur attack 0.958 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.588 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Cambuur xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Cambuur kick off?
FC OSS vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 23 August 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Cambuur?
FC OSS 1 - 0 Cambuur.
Where is FC OSS vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Cambuur part of?
FC OSS vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 38% chance of winning, Cambuur a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC OSS and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Cambuur?
Record (2 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 1W.
What form are FC OSS and Cambuur in?
FC OSS (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Cambuur (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 1.01x the league average against Cambuur's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
38%
2.66
29%
3.47
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.77
1.34
Cambuur xG
2.66
38%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
10%
10.15
8%
12.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.34 for Cambuur, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC OSS come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 5D 24L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-W-D. It's still early in the season for FC OSS, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Cambuur sit at 1.25 PPG from 40 outings (14W 8D 18L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC OSS on 0.95 PPG, Cambuur on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
FC OSS's home form reads 8W 2D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.30 PPG return.
Away from home, Cambuur have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (8W 2D 10L).
The Goals Picture
FC OSS are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.80 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 75%.
Last 40 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Cambuur in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 11W 5D 24L in their last 40 games (0.95 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 14W 8D 18L in their last 40 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Cambuur away?
FC OSS's home record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.30 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.30 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC OSS and Cambuur runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cambuur have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Nov 2023, when Cambuur won 1-8 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
FC OSS
1
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Cambuur have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when FC OSS 1-2 Cambuur.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Cambuur?
Cambuur have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 55%, Cambuur 70% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for FC OSS and 70% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 30% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of FC OSS's games and 70% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC OSS's matches and 70% of Cambuur's.
Do FC OSS and Cambuur tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC OSS edge out Cambuur 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Cambuur 1-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.43 xG and Cambuur 1.34 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Cambuur landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 1.01 / defence 1.06 against Cambuur attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 38% | Draw 29% | Cambuur 34%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, Cambuur 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Cambuur's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.95 PPG, Cambuur 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.70 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.