FC Eindhoven 1-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 3 as FC Eindhoven welcome Waalwijk to Jan Louwers Stadion. Kick-off is set for Friday 22 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC Eindhoven have posted 4W 2D 4L at Jan Louwers Stadion — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Waalwijk — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L W W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Waalwijk have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Waalwijk have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 1.20. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Waalwijk in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Waalwijk in-play tendencies (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 80% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 47% versus Waalwijk 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 61% | Waalwijk 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.71 xG and Waalwijk 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.869 / defence 1.071 | Waalwijk attack 1.093 / defence 1.154. League average goals — home 1.704 / away 1.275. Data: 40 FC Eindhoven games / 2 Waalwijk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 43% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 34%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.33 | Draw 4.35 | Waalwijk 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.71 / 1.49) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Waalwijk 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 43% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.71 / Waalwijk 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.869 / def 1.071 | Waalwijk attack 1.093 / def 1.154 | league avg home 1.704 / away 1.275 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.49
Waalwijk xG
63%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 43% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 34% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Waalwijk (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.87x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.71 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Waalwijk's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
43%
2.33
23%
4.30
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.20
1.49
Waalwijk xG
2.33
43%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
22%
4.45
18%
5.52
Win to Nil
10%
10.36
6%
16.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 10.4 | 7.8 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.7%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.49 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, FC Eindhoven have picked up 1.39 PPG on a 14W 8D 14L record — W-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Waalwijk's form line: 7W 8D 21L from 36 games, 0.81 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Waalwijk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Eindhoven are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC Eindhoven have posted 1.11 PPG from 18 outings (5W 5D 8L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 2W 4D 12L from 18 away games — 0.56 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.33 scored and 2.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Waalwijk in 61%.
Last 36 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Waalwijk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 14W 8D 14L in their last 36 games (1.39 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 7W 8D 21L in their last 36 (0.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Waalwijk away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.11 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.56 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
1
FC Eindhoven
0
Draws
1
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk?
From 2 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 1, Waalwijk have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Waalwijk 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 50%, Waalwijk 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 67% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 28% of games; Waalwijk in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of FC Eindhoven's games and 72% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 67% of Waalwijk's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Waalwijk tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Eindhoven edge out Waalwijk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Waalwijk 1-0 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.71 xG and Waalwijk 1.49 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Waalwijk landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.87 / defence 1.07 against Waalwijk attack 1.09 / defence 1.15, drawn from 40/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 43% | Draw 23% | Waalwijk 34%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 83% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 61%, Waalwijk 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waalwijk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.81. Form held, and they took the win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.