FC Eindhoven 1-1 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven host Dordrecht at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 September 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. FC Eindhoven have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Dordrecht — All Games: 2W 6D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dordrecht away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC Eindhoven at 1.40 PPG versus Dordrecht's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Eindhoven register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Dordrecht in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Dordrecht 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 0–4 with Dordrecht winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 94% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 61% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dordrecht in-play and half-time data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 53% versus Dordrecht 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 44% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.63 xG and Dordrecht 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 0.987 / defence 0.852 | Dordrecht attack 1.011 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.672 / away 1.295. Data: 44 FC Eindhoven games / 45 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.04 | Draw 4.00 | Dordrecht 3.85. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Eindhoven as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.74 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Dordrecht 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 29 Sep 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.63 / Dordrecht 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 0.987 / def 0.852 | Dordrecht attack 1.011 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.672 / away 1.295 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Dordrecht xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 September 2023 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 1 Dordrecht.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
Record (4 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 1W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 0.99x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dordrecht's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
49%
2.03
25%
4.06
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.74
1.12
Dordrecht xG
2.03
49%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
33%
3.05
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
16%
6.20
5%
19.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.4 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.7 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.2 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.12 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Eindhoven come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 14D 13L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. It's still early in the season for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.00 PPG from 45 outings (11W 12D 22L), a run that reads D-W-D-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
FC Eindhoven's home form reads 11W 6D 5L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 0.86 points per game from 22 outings (5W 4D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Eindhoven come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.18 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 18W 14D 13L in their last 45 games (1.51 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 11W 12D 22L in their last 45 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Dordrecht away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.77 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2021, when FC Eindhoven won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting Dordrecht specifically: 1W 4D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
6
Draws
1
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, Dordrecht have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 12 December 2025, when Dordrecht 3-4 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 50%, Dordrecht 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (FC Eindhoven) and 54% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 59% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of FC Eindhoven's recent games and 54% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 8, as FC Eindhoven and Dordrecht drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.63 xG and Dordrecht 1.12 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 0.99 / defence 0.85 against Dordrecht attack 1.01 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 25% | Dordrecht 26%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 44%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dordrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.