FC Eindhoven 1-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Eindhoven at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees De Graafschap travel to Jan Louwers Stadion to take on FC Eindhoven. The game is scheduled for Friday 25 March 2022, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have gone 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.60 PPG return. Last five: W W W D D. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC Eindhoven's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Jan Louwers Stadion this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.10 lags behind their overall 2.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Jan Louwers Stadion this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
FC Eindhoven are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Trading Patterns
FC Eindhoven in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 52% versus De Graafschap 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 52% | De Graafschap 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.46 xG and De Graafschap 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.258 / defence 0.779 | De Graafschap attack 0.822 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.444. FC Eindhoven carry an above-average attack strength of 1.258 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. FC Eindhoven's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 31 FC Eindhoven games / 31 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | De Graafschap 4.17. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Eindhoven at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.38 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | De Graafschap 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 25 Mar 2022, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 47% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.46 / De Graafschap 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.258 / def 0.779 | De Graafschap attack 0.822 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.444 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
0.93
De Graafschap xG
47%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 25 March 2022 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap part of?
FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 49% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Eindhoven's attack rating (1.26) and De Graafschap's defence rating (0.91), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus FC Eindhoven's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
49%
2.03
27%
3.70
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
2.38
0.93
De Graafschap xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.15
53%
BTTS No
1.87
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
23%
4.30
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
18.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.4 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.1 | 4.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 0.93 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 17W 7D 7L from 31 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 13W 8D 10L across 31 games — 1.52 PPG, with D-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Eindhoven on 1.87 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 10W 4D 1L from 15 games — 2.27 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 9W 2D 4L across 15 trips, a 1.93 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.52 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
The Goals Picture
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.32 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games; De Graafschap in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
De Graafschap
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 17W 7D 7L in their last 31 games (1.87 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 13W 8D 10L in their last 31 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or De Graafschap away?
FC Eindhoven's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 2.27 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.93 PPG.
Have FC Eindhoven or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Eindhoven have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2022. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Feb 2023, when De Graafschap won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Eindhoven's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
FC Eindhoven
2
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 3, De Graafschap have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 2-2 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 60%, De Graafschap 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (FC Eindhoven) and 60% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; De Graafschap in 47%; De Graafschap in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of FC Eindhoven's recent matches and 40% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Eindhoven vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 60% of De Graafschap's.
Do FC Eindhoven and De Graafschap tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as De Graafschap defy the odds to beat FC Eindhoven 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat FC Eindhoven 1-2 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.46 xG and De Graafschap 0.93 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 0.93 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.26 / defence 0.78 against De Graafschap attack 0.82 / defence 0.91, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 49% | Draw 27% | De Graafschap 24%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 52%, De Graafschap 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
De Graafschap's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.87 PPG, De Graafschap 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the De Graafschap win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.