Excelsior 0-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Emmen at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Excelsior vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Emmen meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 29 January 2022 at 15:30 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Emmen have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Emmen's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for Excelsior, 2.30 for Emmen — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Emmen and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2021, ended 1–0 with Excelsior winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Excelsior — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 80% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Emmen — key trading statistics (22 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 64% versus Emmen 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 73% | Emmen 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.14 xG and Emmen 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.166 / defence 1.221 | Emmen attack 0.782 / defence 0.848. League average goals — home 1.157 / away 1.443. Data: 23 Excelsior games / 22 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 31% | Draw 27% | Emmen 42%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | Emmen 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Emmen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 70% | Emmen 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Jan 2022, 15:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 31% | Draw 27% | Emmen 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 51% | xG Excelsior 1.14 / Emmen 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.166 / def 1.221 | Emmen attack 0.782 / def 0.848 | league avg home 1.157 / away 1.443 • Poisson stance: Emmen (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Emmen xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Emmen kick off?
Excelsior vs Emmen kicked off at 15:30 on Saturday 29 January 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Emmen?
Excelsior 0 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Excelsior vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Emmen part of?
Excelsior vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 31% chance of winning, Emmen a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Excelsior and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Emmen in?
Excelsior (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-D-L-L. Emmen (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Excelsior's attack rating (1.17) and Emmen's defence rating (0.85), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Emmen's attack (0.78x) against Excelsior's defence (1.22x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 23/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
31%
3.21
27%
3.75
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
Emmen xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
32%
3.14
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
13%
7.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.38 for Emmen, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Emmen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior's recent record stands at 13W 4D 5L from 22 games, a 1.95 PPG return, with W-D-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 14W 3D 5L across 22 games — 2.05 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.95 PPG for Excelsior against 2.05 for Emmen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 5W 3D 2L from 10 games — 1.80 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Emmen's away record stands at 6W 2D 2L across 10 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 2.27 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.55 scored and 0.68 conceded. Excelsior's scoring rate against Emmen's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games.
Defensively: Emmen in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Emmen in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 4D 5L in their last 22 games (1.95 PPG), while Emmen have gone 14W 3D 5L in their last 22 (2.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.80 PPG; Emmen away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Emmen in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 27 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Emmen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Emmen?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Emmen have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 27 April 2025, when Excelsior 2-0 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Emmen?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 70%, Emmen 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 80% for Excelsior and 40% for Emmen. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen in 40%; Emmen in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Emmen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Excelsior's games and 40% of Emmen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 80% of Excelsior's matches and 40% of Emmen's.
Do Excelsior and Emmen tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Emmen in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Emmen edge out Excelsior 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Excelsior 0-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.14 xG and Emmen 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Excelsior fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.17 / defence 1.22 against Emmen attack 0.78 / defence 0.85, drawn from 23/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 31% | Draw 27% | Emmen 42%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 73%, Emmen 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.95 PPG, Emmen 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.30 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.