Excelsior 4-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Den Bosch travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Den Bosch — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.20 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Excelsior are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Den Bosch in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Excelsior, 0 for Den Bosch and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 5.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2021, ended 5–0 with Excelsior winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 59% versus Den Bosch 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 67% | Den Bosch 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.19 xG and Den Bosch 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.383 / defence 1.083 | Den Bosch attack 0.702 / defence 1.359. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.436. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.383 — their λ of 2.19 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Den Bosch bring a strong defensive rating of 1.359 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Excelsior games / 27 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 62% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 18%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Den Bosch 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (62%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.29 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 64% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 60% | Den Bosch 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 62% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 59% | xG Excelsior 2.19 / Den Bosch 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.383 / def 1.083 | Den Bosch attack 0.702 / def 1.359 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.19
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Den Bosch xG
59%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Den Bosch kick off?
Excelsior vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Excelsior 4 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is Excelsior vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Den Bosch part of?
Excelsior vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 62% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 18% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Excelsior and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Den Bosch?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 1W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Den Bosch in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-W-W. Den Bosch (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (1.38x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (1.36x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.19. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
62%
1.61
20%
5.00
18%
5.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
2 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.19
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.29
1.09
Den Bosch xG
1.61
62%
Home win
5.00
20%
Draw
5.63
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
11%
8.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.79
2%
50.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.2 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.6 | 7.2 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 2.19 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.09 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 27 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.93 PPG on a 16W 4D 7L record — L-L-W-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch's form line: 8W 3D 16L from 27 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Excelsior are the form team by 0.93 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.85 PPG from 13 outings (7W 3D 3L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 1W 3D 9L from 13 away games — 0.46 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Den Bosch's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 2.22 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.00 scored and 1.78 conceded.
Last 27 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 16W 4D 7L in their last 27 games (1.93 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 8W 3D 16L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Den Bosch away?
Excelsior's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.85 PPG; Den Bosch away: 0.46 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Den Bosch been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Den Bosch in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Den Bosch runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2021, when Excelsior won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Excelsior
0
Draws
0
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Den Bosch?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 4, Den Bosch have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2025, when Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Den Bosch?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 62%, Den Bosch 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Excelsior and 62% for Den Bosch. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Den Bosch in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Den Bosch?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Excelsior's games and 54% of Den Bosch's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Excelsior's matches and 62% of Den Bosch's.
Do Excelsior and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Den Bosch 4-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.19 xG and Den Bosch 1.09 xG, a combined 3.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Den Bosch landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.38 / defence 1.08 against Den Bosch attack 0.70 / defence 1.36, drawn from 28/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 62% | Draw 20% | Den Bosch 18%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 42% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 67%, Den Bosch 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Den Bosch's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.