Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Excelsior at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Den Bosch encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Den Bosch travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 March 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Excelsior are significantly better at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Den Bosch have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 1.20 PPG, Den Bosch 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Excelsior have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 3 past contests while Den Bosch have managed just 0 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 22 Nov 2024, ended 3–0 with Excelsior winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Excelsior and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 63% versus Den Bosch 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 69% | Den Bosch 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.13 xG and Den Bosch 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.807 / defence 0.868 | Den Bosch attack 0.828 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.665 / away 1.281. Data: 29 Excelsior games / 67 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 40% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 29%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 2.50 | Draw 3.23 | Den Bosch 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Monday 10 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 40% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Excelsior 1.13 / Den Bosch 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.807 / def 0.868 | Den Bosch attack 0.828 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.665 / away 1.281 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Den Bosch xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Den Bosch kick off?
Excelsior vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 10 March 2025 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Excelsior 3 - 1 Den Bosch.
Where is Excelsior vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Den Bosch part of?
Excelsior vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 40% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Excelsior and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Den Bosch?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 3W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Den Bosch in?
Excelsior (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. The same calculation in reverse, Den Bosch's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 1-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
40%
2.50
31%
3.23
29%
3.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.05
0.92
Den Bosch xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
3.44
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
16%
6.27
9%
10.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.8 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.4 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.92 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 67 outings, Excelsior have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 23W 19D 25L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Den Bosch's form line: 20W 16D 31L from 67 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.31 PPG, Den Bosch on 1.13. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Excelsior have posted 1.67 PPG from 33 outings (15W 10D 8L).
On the road, Den Bosch have gone 10W 6D 17L from 33 away games — 1.09 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.18 scored and 1.51 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Den Bosch
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 23W 19D 25L in their last 67 games (1.31 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 20W 16D 31L in their last 67 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Den Bosch away?
Excelsior's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.67 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.09 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Den Bosch runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Excelsior have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2021, when Excelsior won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Den Bosch specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Excelsior
0
Draws
0
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Den Bosch?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 4, Den Bosch have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2025, when Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Den Bosch?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 58%, Den Bosch 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Excelsior) and 52% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 30% of their matches; Den Bosch in 30%; Den Bosch in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Excelsior's recent matches and 36% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Excelsior's recent games and 52% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Den Bosch tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Excelsior cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Den Bosch 3-1 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 31, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.13 xG and Den Bosch 0.92 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.81 / defence 0.87 against Den Bosch attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 40% | Draw 31% | Den Bosch 29%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Den Bosch 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Den Bosch's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.31 PPG, Den Bosch 1.13 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.