Excelsior 0-0 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 52%, yet in-form Excelsior provide a compelling counter-argument — this Excelsior vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees De Graafschap travel to Van Donge & De Roo Stadion to take on Excelsior. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 January 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Excelsior stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's home record at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion: 5W 2D 2L from 9 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.89 PPG). They are averaging 2.33 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, De Graafschap have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 8W 0D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Excelsior are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Excelsior register both teams scoring in 67% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Excelsior have won 0, De Graafschap 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2021, ended 1–3 with De Graafschap winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Excelsior in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
De Graafschap in-play tendencies (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Excelsior 65% and De Graafschap 55% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Excelsior 70% | De Graafschap 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.51 xG and De Graafschap 2.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 1.295 / defence 1.249 | De Graafschap attack 1.099 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.160 / away 1.543. Excelsior carry an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — their λ of 1.51 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 20 Excelsior games / 21 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 27% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 52%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.70 | Draw 4.76 | De Graafschap 1.92. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 69% | Total xG 3.62. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.62 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 69% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 2.12) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Excelsior (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results.
Poisson projects 3.62 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 69%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 67% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 14 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 27% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 69% | xG Excelsior 1.51 / De Graafschap 2.12 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 1.295 / def 1.249 | De Graafschap attack 1.099 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.160 / away 1.543 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
2.12
De Graafschap xG
69%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs De Graafschap kick off?
Excelsior vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 January 2022 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Excelsior 0 - 0 De Graafschap.
Where is Excelsior vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs De Graafschap part of?
Excelsior vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 27% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 52% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 69% probability that both Excelsior and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and De Graafschap?
Record (1 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Excelsior and De Graafschap in?
Excelsior (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Excelsior's attacking strength (1.29x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 2.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 9.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
27%
3.65
21%
4.76
52%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.5%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Excelsior xG
Total xG
3.62
2.12
De Graafschap xG
3.65
27%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
1.94
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
69%
BTTS Yes
1.46
31%
BTTS No
3.18
Clean Sheet
12%
8.31
22%
4.52
Win to Nil
3%
30.36
11%
8.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 6.4 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 2.4 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Excelsior and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Excelsior and 2.12 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Excelsior's recent record stands at 13W 3D 4L from 20 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-D in the last five. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 11W 3D 6L across 20 games — 1.80 PPG, with L-W-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 2.10 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.80. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 5W 2D 2L from 9 games — 1.89 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 7W 0D 2L across 9 trips, a 2.33 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.80 PPG overall record — De Graafschap travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Excelsior are averaging 2.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.70 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Defensively: De Graafschap in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 13W 3D 4L in their last 20 games (2.10 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 11W 3D 6L in their last 20 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.89 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.33 PPG.
Have Excelsior or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Excelsior
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and De Graafschap?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 1, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when De Graafschap 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 67%, De Graafschap 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Excelsior and 78% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 22% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Excelsior's games and 56% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Excelsior's matches and 78% of De Graafschap's.
Do Excelsior and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Excelsior's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 22, as Excelsior and De Graafschap drew 0-0 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.51 xG and De Graafschap 2.12 xG, a combined 3.62. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Excelsior fell 1.5 short of their projected output. De Graafschap landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 1.29 / defence 1.25 against De Graafschap attack 1.10 / defence 1.00, drawn from 20/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 27% | Draw 21% | De Graafschap 52%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 49% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 69% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 68% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 70%, De Graafschap 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
De Graafschap's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 2.10 PPG, De Graafschap 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.44 average — tighter than their form line. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.