Emmen 1-0 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Roda at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Roda encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Roda make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1. The match kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Emmen (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 4W 2D 4L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Roda have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Roda haven't played a Eerste Divisie game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.90 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Emmen, 4 for Roda and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Emmen — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
Roda — key trading statistics (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 60% and Roda 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 63% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.51 xG and Roda 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.965 / defence 1.015 | Roda attack 1.070 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.709 / away 1.421. Data: 38 Emmen games / 38 Roda games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 24% | Roda 39%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.70 | Draw 4.17 | Roda 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.06. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.06 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.54) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.06 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 50% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 7 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 37% | Draw 24% | Roda 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Emmen 1.51 / Roda 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.965 / def 1.015 | Roda attack 1.070 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.709 / away 1.421 • Poisson stance: Roda (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.54
Roda xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Roda kick off?
Emmen vs Roda kicked off at 18:00 on Friday 7 August 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Roda?
Emmen 1 - 0 Roda.
Where is Emmen vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Roda part of?
Emmen vs Roda is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 37% chance of winning, Roda a 39% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Emmen and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 2W | Draws 2 | Roda 4W.
What form are Emmen and Roda in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Emmen (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Emmen's attack rating (0.96) and Roda's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.51 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.07x) against Emmen's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.54.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
37%
2.68
24%
4.16
39%
2.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.06
1.54
Roda xG
2.68
37%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.59
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
21%
4.68
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
8%
12.53
8%
11.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.7 | 7.3 | 5.6 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.0 | 8.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are Emmen and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Emmen and 1.54 for Roda, a combined total of 3.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Emmen come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 9D 17L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-W. Emmen haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.34 PPG from 38 outings (12W 15D 11L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-D across their last five. Roda haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Emmen against 1.34 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Emmen's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.79 points per game from 19 outings (9W 7D 3L). That's actually stronger than their 1.34 PPG overall record — Roda travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Emmen are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.50 scored and 1.45 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Roda in 66%.
Last 38 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Pre-Season
Roda
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Roda in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 12W 9D 17L in their last 38 games (1.18 PPG), while Roda have gone 12W 15D 11L in their last 38 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.53 PPG; Roda away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 7 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Emmen
2
Draws
4
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Roda?
From 9 meetings on record, Emmen have won 3, Roda have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 7 August 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Roda.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 63% for Emmen, 74% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Emmen and 68% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Emmen's games and 74% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Emmen's matches and 68% of Roda's.
Do Emmen and Roda tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Roda in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Emmen defy the odds to beat Roda 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Roda 1-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 1, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.51 xG and Roda 1.54 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Roda landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.96 / defence 1.01 against Roda attack 1.07 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 37% | Draw 24% | Roda 39%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Emmen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 63%, Roda 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Roda's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Emmen 1.18 PPG, Roda 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Emmen win broke the near-deadlock. Emmen (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.58 average — tighter than their form line. Roda (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.63 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.