Emmen 2-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 62% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs Jong Utrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Jong Utrecht make the trip to De Oude Meerdijk to face Emmen in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Emmen have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Emmen's home record at De Oude Meerdijk: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Jong Utrecht (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jong Utrecht have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Emmen against 0.80 for Jong Utrecht. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Emmen, who have won 5 of the last 5 meetings against Jong Utrecht — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 2–1 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Emmen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Jong Utrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 51% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 60% | Jong Utrecht 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 2.17 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.925 / defence 1.111 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.739 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.654 / away 1.299. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Emmen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 68 Emmen games / 67 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 62% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 17%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 1.61 | Draw 5.00 | Jong Utrecht 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.24 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 50% | Jong Utrecht 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 62% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 2.17 / Jong Utrecht 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.925 / def 1.111 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.739 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.654 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Emmen (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Jong Utrecht xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Emmen vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 March 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Emmen 2 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Emmen vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Emmen vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 62% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 17% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Utrecht?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 0 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Emmen and Jong Utrecht in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.93x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 2.17 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.74x) against Emmen's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
62%
1.60
20%
4.95
17%
5.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Emmen xG
Total xG
3.24
1.07
Jong Utrecht xG
1.60
62%
Home win
4.95
20%
Draw
5.74
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.40
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.66
2%
50.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.9 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Emmen and 1.07 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Emmen come into this having played 67 games, going 30W 10D 27L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Jong Utrecht sit at 0.66 PPG from 67 outings (8W 20D 39L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.83 PPG clear of Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Emmen's home form reads 13W 6D 14L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.36 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong Utrecht have taken 0.45 points per game from 33 outings (2W 9D 22L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Emmen are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.85 scored and 2.03 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 30W 10D 27L in their last 67 games (1.49 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 20D 39L in their last 67 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Emmen's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.36 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Emmen have taken the last 8 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Emmen have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
8
Emmen
0
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong Utrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 8, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Emmen 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong Utrecht?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 52%, Jong Utrecht 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 58% for Emmen and 64% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 27% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong Utrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Emmen's recent matches and 58% of Jong Utrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Emmen's matches and 64% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Emmen and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 91% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong Utrecht 2-0 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 30, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 2.17 xG and Jong Utrecht 1.07 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jong Utrecht landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.93 / defence 1.11 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.74 / defence 1.42, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 62% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 17%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 60%, Jong Utrecht 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.49 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Emmen (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.