Emmen 0-2 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 58% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Emmen vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees De Graafschap travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 27 August 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 outings — a 1.33 PPG return. Last five: D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap — All Games: 2W 0D 1L from 3 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W. They are scoring at 1.67 per game and conceding 1.33. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 33% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. De Graafschap's 2.00 PPG return is 0.67 points per game ahead of Emmen's 1.33 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
De Graafschap trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 67% versus De Graafschap 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Emmen 33% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 0.85 xG and De Graafschap 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.760 / defence 1.068 | De Graafschap attack 0.990 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.018 / away 1.621. Emmen's attack strength of 0.760 is below the league average — the 0.85 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Emmen games / 3 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 18% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 58%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 5.56 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 1.72. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (58%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.56 combined xG gives a 47% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 67% | De Graafschap 33%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 27 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 18% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 47% | xG Emmen 0.85 / De Graafschap 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.760 / def 1.068 | De Graafschap attack 0.990 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.018 / away 1.621 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.71
De Graafschap xG
47%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Emmen vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 27 August 2021 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Emmen 0 - 2 De Graafschap.
Where is Emmen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs De Graafschap part of?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 18% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 58% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Emmen and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in?
Emmen (all comps): 1W-1D-1L in 3 | 1.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-0D-1L in 3 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.76x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.7%), 0-2 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
18%
5.43
24%
4.21
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.3%
Away win
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.56
1.71
De Graafschap xG
5.43
18%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.55
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
3%
30.17
25%
4.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 13.2 | 11.3 | 6.5 | 2.8 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.2 | 9.6 | 5.5 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Emmen and 1.71 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 3 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 1W 1D 1L record — D-L-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games, 2.00 PPG, last five L-W-W. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Emmen.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Emmen have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 3 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 1W 1D 1L in their last 3 games (1.33 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 2W 0D 1L in their last 3 (2.00 PPG).
Have Emmen or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Emmen have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 67%, De Graafschap 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Emmen) and 67% (De Graafschap).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap in 33%; Emmen have failed to score in 33% of games; De Graafschap in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play De Graafschap?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 67% of Emmen's recent matches and 33% of De Graafschap's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Emmen's recent games and 67% of De Graafschap's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Emmen and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Emmen.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Emmen 0-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 0.85 xG and De Graafschap 1.71 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Emmen fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.76 / defence 1.07 against De Graafschap attack 0.99 / defence 1.10, drawn from 3/3 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 18% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 58%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 33%, De Graafschap 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.33. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.