Dordrecht 3-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates PEC Zwolle at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle meet at Matchoholic Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Friday 7 October 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's form when playing at home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 games at Matchoholic Stadion this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Dordrecht are significantly better at Matchoholic Stadion than their overall form suggests.
PEC Zwolle (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, PEC Zwolle have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
PEC Zwolle arrive in superior form — a 1.10 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
PEC Zwolle goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 67% versus PEC Zwolle 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 67% | PEC Zwolle 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.865 / defence 1.064 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.442 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.400. PEC Zwolle have an above-average attack strength of 1.442 — the away xG of 2.15 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Dordrecht games / 9 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 20% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 57%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 5.00 | Draw 4.35 | PEC Zwolle 1.75. The model has a clear lean to PEC Zwolle (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.24 / 2.15) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PEC Zwolle are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.39 combined xG gives a 66% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. This conflicts with form data: Dordrecht 60% | PEC Zwolle 20% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 7 Oct 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 20% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 64% | xG Dordrecht 1.24 / PEC Zwolle 2.15 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.865 / def 1.064 | PEC Zwolle attack 1.442 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.400 • Poisson stance: PEC Zwolle (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
2.15
PEC Zwolle xG
64%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 October 2022 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Dordrecht 3 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 20% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 57% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PEC Zwolle the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. Flip it around — PEC Zwolle's attack (1.44x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 2.15.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
PEC Zwolle Win
20%
4.90
23%
4.42
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
0 – 2
7.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.39
2.15
PEC Zwolle xG
4.90
20%
Home win
4.42
23%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.77
Clean Sheet
12%
8.57
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
2%
42.02
16%
6.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 7.2 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 |
| 1 | 4.2 | 9.0 | 9.7 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.6 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 5.6 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 1.0 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Dordrecht and 2.15 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 11W 9D 23L record — L-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle's form line: 13W 8D 22L from 43 games, 1.09 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-D. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.98 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.09 for PEC Zwolle. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.33 PPG from 21 outings (8W 4D 9L).
On the road, PEC Zwolle have gone 8W 1D 12L from 21 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dordrecht are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.95 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.16 scored and 1.47 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 11W 9D 23L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 8D 22L in their last 43 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.33 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Dordrecht
0
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle?
From 2 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 28 April 2023, when PEC Zwolle 4-0 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, PEC Zwolle 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Dordrecht) and 48% (PEC Zwolle).
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 33% of games; PEC Zwolle in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 33% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Dordrecht's recent games and 48% of PEC Zwolle's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dordrecht and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dordrecht run riot with a 3-0 hammering of PEC Zwolle.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat PEC Zwolle 3-0 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.24 xG and PEC Zwolle 2.15 xG, a combined 3.39. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. PEC Zwolle landed 2.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.86 / defence 1.06 against PEC Zwolle attack 1.44 / defence 0.87, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 20% | Draw 23% | PEC Zwolle 57%, with PEC Zwolle to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a Dordrecht win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 67%, PEC Zwolle 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 0.98 PPG, PEC Zwolle 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.62 average — tighter than their form line. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.