Dordrecht 0-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and De Graafschap meet at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 November 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 home games — 0.86 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 57% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
De Graafschap (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W W L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 5W 0D 2L from 7 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.14 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
De Graafschap — key trading statistics (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 78% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Dordrecht 73% and De Graafschap 53% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Dordrecht 73% | De Graafschap 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.13 xG and De Graafschap 1.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.846 / defence 1.233 | De Graafschap attack 0.973 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.555. Data: 15 Dordrecht games / 15 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 23% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 55%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 4.35 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 1.82. The model has a clear lean to De Graafschap (55%) — a 32pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 57% | De Graafschap 71% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Nov 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 23% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Dordrecht 1.13 / De Graafschap 1.87 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.846 / def 1.233 | De Graafschap attack 0.973 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.555 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.87
De Graafschap xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 November 2021 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Dordrecht 0 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Dordrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 23% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 55% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Dordrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.13. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.97x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.87.
These ratings are built from 15/15 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
23%
4.36
23%
4.43
55%
1.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
3.00
1.87
De Graafschap xG
4.36
23%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
1.83
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
15%
6.46
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
4%
28.21
18%
5.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.5 | 9.8 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.2 | 6.0 | 5.6 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.87 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs De Graafschap?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 2W 4D 9L from 15 games, a 0.67 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap, meanwhile, have gone 8W 3D 4L across 15 games — 1.80 PPG, with D-W-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours De Graafschap by 1.13 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dordrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 1W 3D 3L from 7 games — 0.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
De Graafschap's away record stands at 5W 0D 2L across 7 trips, a 2.14 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.13 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.53 scored and 1.13 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games.
Last 15 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 2W 4D 9L in their last 15 games (0.67 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 8W 3D 4L in their last 15 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 0.86 PPG; De Graafschap away: 2.14 PPG.
Have Dordrecht or De Graafschap been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dordrecht have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, De Graafschap in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 10 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dordrecht
5
Draws
3
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 2, De Graafschap have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when De Graafschap 2-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 57%, De Graafschap 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 43% for Dordrecht and 86% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Dordrecht's games and 71% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Dordrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 43% of Dordrecht's matches and 86% of De Graafschap's.
Do Dordrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 43% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Dordrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Dordrecht 0-4 at Riwal Hoogwerkers Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.13 xG and De Graafschap 1.87 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht fell 1.1 short of their projected output. De Graafschap outscored their 1.87 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.85 / defence 1.23 against De Graafschap attack 0.97 / defence 1.05, drawn from 15/15 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 23% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 55%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 55%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 70% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 73%, De Graafschap 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.80 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.43 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.