Dordrecht 0-1 Almere City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Almere City FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dordrecht vs Almere City FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Almere City FC make the trip to Matchoholic Stadion to face Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 3 March 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Dordrecht (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Dordrecht have posted 3W 2D 5L at Matchoholic Stadion — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Almere City FC's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Almere City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Almere City FC have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Almere City FC are 1.00 PPG clear of Dordrecht in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (2.00 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Dordrecht 0W, Almere City FC 1W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.7 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–2 with Almere City FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Dordrecht — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Almere City FC — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 61% versus Almere City FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 66% | Almere City FC 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.01 xG and Almere City FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 0.902 / defence 1.053 | Almere City FC attack 1.002 / defence 0.641. League average goals — home 1.742 / away 1.237. Almere City FC's defence strength of 0.641 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 64 Dordrecht games / 64 Almere City FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 29% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 43%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 3.45 | Draw 3.57 | Almere City FC 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Almere City FC as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Almere City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.31 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 50% | Almere City FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs Almere City FC | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Matchoholic Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 29% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Dordrecht 1.01 / Almere City FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 0.902 / def 1.053 | Almere City FC attack 1.002 / def 0.641 | league avg home 1.742 / away 1.237 • Poisson stance: Almere City FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Almere City FC xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs Almere City FC kick off?
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Matchoholic Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Dordrecht 0 - 1 Almere City FC.
Where is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC being played?
The match is being played at Matchoholic Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC part of?
Dordrecht vs Almere City FC is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 29% chance of winning, Almere City FC a 43% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Almere City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Dordrecht and Almere City FC will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs Almere City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
Record (3 meetings): Dordrecht 0W | Draws 2 | Almere City FC 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and Almere City FC in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Almere City FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Dordrecht's attack rating (0.90) and Almere City FC's defence rating (0.64), the model arrives at 1.01 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Almere City FC's attack (1.00x) against Dordrecht's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Almere City FC Win
29%
3.48
28%
3.59
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.31
1.31
Almere City FC xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
27%
3.69
37%
2.74
Win to Nil
8%
12.84
16%
6.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.9 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and Almere City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Dordrecht and 1.31 for Almere City FC, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs Almere City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Dordrecht's recent record stands at 17W 14D 33L from 64 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Almere City FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 12D 27L across 64 games — 1.36 PPG, with W-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Almere City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.02 PPG for Dordrecht against 1.36 for Almere City FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Dordrecht have managed 10W 8D 13L from 31 games — 1.23 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Almere City FC's away record stands at 13W 5D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.42 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Almere City FC are on 1.48 scored and 1.53 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dordrecht have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 64 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Blended
Almere City FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and Almere City FC in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 17W 14D 33L in their last 64 games (1.02 PPG), while Almere City FC have gone 25W 12D 27L in their last 64 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or Almere City FC away?
Almere City FC's away record (1.42 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.23 PPG; Almere City FC away: 1.42 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Almere City FC have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Almere City FC won 4-1 on 17 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 0W 1D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Almere City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Dordrecht
2
Draws
4
Almere City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
From 6 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 0, Almere City FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and Almere City FC last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when Almere City FC 4-1 Dordrecht.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and Almere City FC?
Almere City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Almere City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 55%, Almere City FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dordrecht) and 58% (Almere City FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 32% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / Almere City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play Almere City FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 55% of Almere City FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs Almere City FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Dordrecht's matches and 58% of Almere City FC's.
Do Dordrecht and Almere City FC tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Almere City FC in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Almere City FC edge out Dordrecht 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Almere City FC beat Dordrecht 0-1 at Matchoholic Stadion, Regular Season - 27, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.01 xG and Almere City FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dordrecht fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 0.90 / defence 1.05 against Almere City FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.64, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 29% | Draw 28% | Almere City FC 43%, with Almere City FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 66%, Almere City FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Almere City FC's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Dordrecht 1.02 PPG, Almere City FC 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Almere City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Dordrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Almere City FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.61 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.