Den Bosch 0-1 Telstar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Telstar fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Telstar meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Telstar have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: W L W L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Telstar have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.70 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.30 for Telstar. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Telstar have the stronger historical record — 4 wins to Den Bosch's 1, with 2 draws in the mix.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game from 7 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Sep 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Telstar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Telstar — key trading statistics (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus Telstar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 56% | Telstar 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.01 xG and Telstar 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.016 / defence 0.882 | Telstar attack 0.843 / defence 1.179. League average goals — home 1.680 / away 1.276. Data: 63 Den Bosch games / 63 Telstar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 62% | Draw 22% | Telstar 17%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.61 | Draw 4.55 | Telstar 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (62%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.96 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 50% | Telstar 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Telstar | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 14 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 62% | Draw 22% | Telstar 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 53% | xG Den Bosch 2.01 / Telstar 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.016 / def 0.882 | Telstar attack 0.843 / def 1.179 | league avg home 1.680 / away 1.276 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.01
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Telstar xG
53%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Telstar kick off?
Den Bosch vs Telstar kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 14 February 2025 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Den Bosch 0 - 1 Telstar.
Where is Den Bosch vs Telstar being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Telstar part of?
Den Bosch vs Telstar is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 62% chance of winning, Telstar a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Den Bosch and Telstar will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Telstar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Record (7 meetings): Den Bosch 1W | Draws 2 | Telstar 4W.
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Telstar (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Telstar's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.01. Flip it around — Telstar's attack (0.84x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.95.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.5%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
62%
1.62
22%
4.61
17%
6.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.01
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.96
0.95
Telstar xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
6.01
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
13%
7.48
Win to Nil
24%
4.19
2%
44.91
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Telstar expected to score?
The model projects 2.01 expected goals for Den Bosch and 0.95 for Telstar, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Telstar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Den Bosch come into this having played 63 games, going 20W 15D 28L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Telstar sit at 1.11 PPG from 63 outings (18W 16D 29L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.19 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.11 for Telstar. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Den Bosch's home form reads 10W 10D 12L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Telstar have taken 0.66 points per game from 32 outings (5W 6D 21L). That's a step down from their 1.11 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Telstar's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Telstar are on 1.41 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Telstar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Telstar in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 20W 15D 28L in their last 63 games (1.19 PPG), while Telstar have gone 18W 16D 29L in their last 63 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Telstar away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.25 PPG; Telstar away: 0.66 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Telstar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Telstar in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 1-4 on 17 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Telstar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Den Bosch
3
Draws
6
Telstar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Telstar?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 1, Telstar have won 6, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Telstar last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Telstar 2-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Telstar?
Telstar have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Telstar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 56%, Telstar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Den Bosch) and 47% (Telstar).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Telstar in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Telstar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Telstar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 53% of Telstar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Telstar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Den Bosch's recent games and 47% of Telstar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Telstar tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Telstar in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Telstar defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Telstar beat Den Bosch 0-1 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 26, in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.01 xG and Telstar 0.95 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.02 / defence 0.88 against Telstar attack 0.84 / defence 1.18, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 62% | Draw 22% | Telstar 17%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a Telstar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 56%, Telstar 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Telstar's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.19 PPG, Telstar 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Telstar win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward. Telstar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.91 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.