Den Bosch 1-2 MVV – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 64%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs MVV fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Den Bosch host MVV at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 18 January 2026 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, MVV stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.30. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for MVV, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, MVV have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Den Bosch at 1.50 PPG versus MVV's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 9 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 16 Sep 2025, ended 4–2 with Den Bosch winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
MVV in-play tendencies (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 51% versus MVV 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 59% | MVV 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.30 xG and MVV 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.104 / defence 0.925 | MVV attack 0.779 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.537. Data: 59 Den Bosch games / 59 MVV games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 64% | Draw 19% | MVV 17%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.56 | Draw 5.26 | MVV 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (64%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (2.30 / 1.11) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 64% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | MVV 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs MVV | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jan 2026, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 64% | Draw 19% | MVV 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 60% | xG Den Bosch 2.30 / MVV 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.104 / def 0.925 | MVV attack 0.779 / def 1.195 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.537 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.30
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.11
MVV xG
60%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs MVV kick off?
Den Bosch vs MVV kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 18 January 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Den Bosch 1 - 2 MVV.
Where is Den Bosch vs MVV being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs MVV part of?
Den Bosch vs MVV is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 64% chance of winning, MVV a 17% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Den Bosch and MVV will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs MVV have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
Record (9 meetings): Den Bosch 4W | Draws 2 | MVV 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. MVV (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.10x the league average against MVV's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 2.30 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, MVV's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
64%
1.56
19%
5.24
17%
5.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
8.8%
Home win
1 – 1
8.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.30
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.41
1.11
MVV xG
1.56
64%
Home win
5.24
19%
Draw
5.90
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
10%
9.95
Win to Nil
21%
4.74
2%
58.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.7 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 7.4 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.9 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and MVV expected to score?
The model projects 2.30 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.11 for MVV, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs MVV?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch's recent record stands at 24W 13D 22L from 59 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
MVV, meanwhile, have gone 16W 14D 29L across 59 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-D-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for MVV is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.44 PPG, MVV on 1.05. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Den Bosch have managed 15W 8D 7L from 30 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
MVV's away record stands at 3W 9D 18L across 30 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of MVV's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; MVV are on 1.31 scored and 1.68 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
MVV
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and MVV in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 24W 13D 22L in their last 59 games (1.44 PPG), while MVV have gone 16W 14D 29L in their last 59 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or MVV away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.77 PPG; MVV away: 0.60 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or MVV been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, MVV in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Jan 2025, when MVV won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting MVV specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Den Bosch
2
Draws
4
MVV
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and MVV?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 4, MVV have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and MVV last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-2 MVV.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
MVV are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 47%, MVV 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Den Bosch) and 50% (MVV).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; MVV in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / MVV away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play MVV?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 40% of MVV's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs MVV usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Den Bosch's recent games and 50% of MVV's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and MVV tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, MVV in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as MVV defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
MVV beat Den Bosch 1-2 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.30 xG and MVV 1.11 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.3 short of their projected output. MVV outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.10 / defence 0.93 against MVV attack 0.78 / defence 1.20, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 64% | Draw 19% | MVV 17%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a MVV win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, MVV 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
MVV's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.44 PPG, MVV 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the MVV win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual. MVV (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.