Den Bosch 0-2 FC Eindhoven – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC Eindhoven at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 23 as Den Bosch welcome FC Eindhoven to Stadion De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 21 January 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Den Bosch — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 5W 0D 5L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, FC Eindhoven have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Eindhoven, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Eindhoven away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. FC Eindhoven's 1.80 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Den Bosch's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Den Bosch, 1 for FC Eindhoven and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 0–1 with FC Eindhoven winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
FC Eindhoven in-play tendencies (22 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 46% versus FC Eindhoven 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 59% | FC Eindhoven 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.769 / defence 1.324 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.773 / defence 1.201. League average goals — home 1.143 / away 1.503. Den Bosch's attack strength of 0.769 is below the league average — the 1.06 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Eindhoven bring a strong defensive rating of 1.201 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Den Bosch games / 22 FC Eindhoven games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 25% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 48%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | FC Eindhoven 2.08. FC Eindhoven hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.59. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.59 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Eindhoven are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Eindhoven offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.59 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 40% | FC Eindhoven 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 21 Jan 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 25% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 52% | xG Den Bosch 1.06 / FC Eindhoven 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.769 / def 1.324 | FC Eindhoven attack 0.773 / def 1.201 | league avg home 1.143 / away 1.503 • Poisson stance: FC Eindhoven (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.54
FC Eindhoven xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kick off?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 21 January 2022 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Den Bosch 0 - 2 FC Eindhoven.
Where is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven part of?
Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 25% chance of winning, FC Eindhoven a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC Eindhoven the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
Record (1 meetings): Den Bosch 0W | Draws 0 | FC Eindhoven 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. FC Eindhoven (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 0.77x the league average against FC Eindhoven's defence at 1.20x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Eindhoven's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (9.9%), 1-2 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Eindhoven Win
25%
3.98
27%
3.66
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.59
1.54
FC Eindhoven xG
3.98
25%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
35%
2.87
Win to Nil
5%
18.50
17%
6.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 11.5 | 8.8 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.54 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.59.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Den Bosch come into this having played 22 games, going 8W 2D 12L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Eindhoven sit at 1.59 PPG from 22 outings (10W 5D 7L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for FC Eindhoven is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Eindhoven carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.41 PPG clear of Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Den Bosch's home form reads 6W 0D 5L across 11 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Den Bosch are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, FC Eindhoven have taken 1.00 points per game from 11 outings (3W 2D 6L). That's a step down from their 1.59 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of FC Eindhoven's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Den Bosch are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; FC Eindhoven are on 1.73 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: FC Eindhoven in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
FC Eindhoven
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 8W 2D 12L in their last 22 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Eindhoven have gone 10W 5D 7L in their last 22 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or FC Eindhoven away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.64 PPG; FC Eindhoven away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or FC Eindhoven been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, FC Eindhoven in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 12 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Den Bosch have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jan 2023, when FC Eindhoven won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting FC Eindhoven specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
7
FC Eindhoven
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, FC Eindhoven have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven last play each other?
They last met on 12 February 2026, when Den Bosch 2-1 FC Eindhoven.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven?
FC Eindhoven have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
FC Eindhoven see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Den Bosch 36% BTTS, FC Eindhoven 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Den Bosch) and 36% (FC Eindhoven).
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven in 36%; Den Bosch have failed to score in 36% of games; FC Eindhoven in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / FC Eindhoven away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play FC Eindhoven?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 27% of FC Eindhoven's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs FC Eindhoven usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Den Bosch's recent games and 36% of FC Eindhoven's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and FC Eindhoven tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, FC Eindhoven in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Eindhoven cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Eindhoven beat Den Bosch 0-2 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 23, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.06 xG and FC Eindhoven 1.54 xG, a combined 2.59. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.77 / defence 1.32 against FC Eindhoven attack 0.77 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 25% | Draw 27% | FC Eindhoven 48%, with FC Eindhoven to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 59%, FC Eindhoven 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Eindhoven arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.18. That form edge translated into the three points. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.