Den Bosch 0-5 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Excelsior at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Excelsior travel to Stadion De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 3 September 2021, 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W W L L. They are averaging 1.25 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 4 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 25% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Excelsior — All Games: 2W 1D 1L from 4 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 1.75 PPG. Last five: L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.25 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 75% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.50 PPG, Excelsior 1.75 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Excelsior in-play tendencies (4 games): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 25% versus Excelsior 75%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Den Bosch 25% | Excelsior 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.33 xG and Excelsior 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.062 / defence 1.212 | Excelsior attack 0.918 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.405. Data: 4 Den Bosch games / 4 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 33% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 43%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Excelsior 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Excelsior are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Excelsior offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Den Bosch 25% | Excelsior 75%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 3 Sep 2021, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 33% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 58% | xG Den Bosch 1.33 / Excelsior 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.062 / def 1.212 | Excelsior attack 0.918 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Excelsior xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Excelsior kick off?
Den Bosch vs Excelsior kicked off at 17:45 on Friday 3 September 2021 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Den Bosch 0 - 5 Excelsior.
Where is Den Bosch vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Excelsior part of?
Den Bosch vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 33% chance of winning, Excelsior a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Den Bosch and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Excelsior?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Den Bosch and Excelsior in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 2W-0D-2L in 4 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-L. Excelsior (all comps): 2W-1D-1L in 4 | 1.75 PPG | GF 1.25 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.06) and Excelsior's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.33 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 4/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
33%
3.07
25%
4.06
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.90
1.56
Excelsior xG
3.07
33%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
21%
4.78
26%
3.79
Win to Nil
7%
14.68
11%
8.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.5 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.0 | 3.1 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.56 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 4 games, going 2W 0D 2L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Excelsior sit at 1.75 PPG from 4 outings (2W 1D 1L), a run that reads L-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.50 PPG, Excelsior on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.25 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games; Excelsior in 75%.
Defensively: Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 4 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Excelsior
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 2W 0D 2L in their last 4 games (1.50 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 2W 1D 1L in their last 4 (1.75 PPG).
Have Den Bosch or Excelsior been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Excelsior in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Excelsior have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Sep 2021, when Excelsior won 0-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Den Bosch
0
Draws
4
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 0, Excelsior have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 March 2025, when Excelsior 3-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 25%, Excelsior 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Den Bosch) and 50% (Excelsior).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 75% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Den Bosch's recent games and 50% of Excelsior's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Excelsior tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Den Bosch 0-5 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 5, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.33 xG and Excelsior 1.56 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Excelsior outscored their 1.56 projection by 3.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.06 / defence 1.21 against Excelsior attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 4/4 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 33% | Draw 25% | Excelsior 43%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 25%, Excelsior 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Excelsior's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.50 PPG, Excelsior 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Excelsior win broke the near-deadlock. Den Bosch managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior scored 5 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.