Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Emmen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 25 as Den Bosch welcome Emmen to De Vliert. Kick-off is set for Friday 30 January 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Den Bosch stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at De Vliert, Den Bosch have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Emmen have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.30 PPG, Emmen 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Emmen in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 7 encounters between these sides heavily favour Emmen, who boast 5 victories compared to 2 for Den Bosch.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 1–3 with Emmen winning.
It is worth noting that Emmen have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Profile
Den Bosch in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Emmen in-play tendencies (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 55% versus Emmen 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Emmen 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 2.25 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.026 / defence 0.975 | Emmen attack 0.794 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.773 / away 1.565. Emmen bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing Den Bosch's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Den Bosch games / 60 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 60% | Draw 21% | Emmen 19%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 1.67 | Draw 4.76 | Emmen 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Den Bosch (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 67% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.46. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 67% — a total xG of 3.46 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.21) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.46 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 67% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Emmen 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 30 Jan 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 60% | Draw 21% | Emmen 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 67% | BTTS 64% | xG Den Bosch 2.25 / Emmen 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.026 / def 0.975 | Emmen attack 0.794 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.773 / away 1.565 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Emmen xG
64%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
67%
Over 2.5
45%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Emmen kick off?
Den Bosch vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 30 January 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is Den Bosch vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Emmen part of?
Den Bosch vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 60% chance of winning, Emmen a 19% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Den Bosch and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 67%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Record (7 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 0 | Emmen 5W.
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Emmen (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.03) and Emmen's defence rating (1.24), the model arrives at 2.25 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 9.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
60%
1.67
21%
4.76
19%
5.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.46
1.21
Emmen xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.76
21%
Draw
5.28
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
86%
Over 1.5
1.16
14%
Under 1.5
7.14
67%
Over 2.5
1.49
33%
Under 2.5
3.03
45%
Over 3.5
2.22
55%
Under 3.5
1.82
27%
Over 4.5
3.70
73%
Under 4.5
1.37
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
11%
9.45
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
2%
49.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.6 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.3 | 4.0 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.21 for Emmen, a combined total of 3.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Den Bosch come into this having played 60 games, going 22W 14D 24L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-D. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Emmen sit at 1.40 PPG from 60 outings (25W 9D 26L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Den Bosch on 1.33 PPG, Emmen on 1.40. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Den Bosch's home form reads 14W 8D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.67 PPG return.
Away from home, Emmen have taken 1.27 points per game from 30 outings (12W 2D 16L).
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.58 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
Emmen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Emmen in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 22W 14D 24L in their last 60 games (1.33 PPG), while Emmen have gone 25W 9D 26L in their last 60 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Emmen away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.67 PPG; Emmen away: 1.27 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Dec 2024, when Den Bosch won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Den Bosch's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Emmen.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 50%, Emmen 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Den Bosch) and 63% (Emmen). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Emmen in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 47% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Den Bosch's matches and 63% of Emmen's.
Do Den Bosch and Emmen tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Emmen in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Vliert, Regular Season - 25, as Den Bosch and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 2.25 xG and Emmen 1.21 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Emmen attack 0.79 / defence 1.24, drawn from 62/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 60% | Draw 21% | Emmen 19%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Emmen 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Emmen's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.33 PPG, Emmen 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.