Den Bosch 3-3 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Dordrecht fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and Dordrecht meet at De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 12 September 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Den Bosch have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Den Bosch have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Den Bosch's home record at De Vliert: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at De Vliert. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Dordrecht's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: L W W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Dordrecht have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Dordrecht have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Dordrecht in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Dordrecht, who have claimed 5 wins from 8 meetings compared to 2 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.2 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 0–4 with Dordrecht winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Dordrecht have won 5 of 8 previous encounters, and at 4.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Dordrecht half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 44% versus Dordrecht 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 51% | Dordrecht 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.237 / defence 0.949 | Dordrecht attack 1.092 / defence 0.697. League average goals — home 1.655 / away 1.221. Dordrecht's defence strength of 0.697 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 41 Den Bosch games / 42 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 33%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.44 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 55% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Den Bosch at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.69 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. This conflicts with form data: Den Bosch 30% | Dordrecht 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 12 Sep 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Den Bosch 1.43 / Dordrecht 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.237 / def 0.949 | Dordrecht attack 1.092 / def 0.697 | league avg home 1.655 / away 1.221 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Dordrecht xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kick off?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 September 2025 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Den Bosch 3 - 3 Dordrecht.
Where is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht part of?
Den Bosch vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 41% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 33% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Den Bosch and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Record (8 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | Dordrecht 5W.
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-W-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Den Bosch's attack at 1.24x the league average against Dordrecht's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (1.09x) against Den Bosch's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 41/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 0-0 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
41%
2.45
26%
3.88
33%
2.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
2.69
1.27
Dordrecht xG
2.45
41%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.99
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
12%
8.69
8%
12.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 12.2 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.7 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.27 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Den Bosch come into this having played 45 games, going 18W 12D 15L for 1.47 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Den Bosch, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dordrecht sit at 1.80 PPG from 45 outings (24W 9D 12L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dordrecht, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.47 PPG for Den Bosch against 1.80 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Den Bosch's home form reads 11W 7D 4L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.82 PPG return.
Away from home, Dordrecht have taken 1.32 points per game from 22 outings (9W 2D 11L). That's a step down from their 1.80 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dordrecht's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Den Bosch come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Den Bosch are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.76 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Defensively: Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Dordrecht in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 45 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Early Season
Dordrecht
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 18W 12D 15L in their last 45 games (1.47 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 24W 9D 12L in their last 45 (1.80 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Dordrecht away?
Den Bosch's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.82 PPG; Dordrecht away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Dordrecht been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Dordrecht in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dordrecht won 5-1 on 27 Oct 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
2
Draws
6
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, Dordrecht have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Dordrecht 3-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and Dordrecht?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 41%, Dordrecht 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Den Bosch) and 50% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Dordrecht in 36%; Dordrecht in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Dordrecht?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 36% of Dordrecht's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Den Bosch's recent games and 50% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Dordrecht share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at De Vliert, Regular Season - 5, as Den Bosch and Dordrecht drew 3-3 in the Eerste Divisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.43 xG and Dordrecht 1.27 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Den Bosch beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dordrecht outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.24 / defence 0.95 against Dordrecht attack 1.09 / defence 0.70, drawn from 41/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 41% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 33%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 51%, Dordrecht 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Dordrecht's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Den Bosch 1.47 PPG, Dordrecht 1.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Den Bosch (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.