De Graafschap 2-0 NAC Breda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates NAC Breda at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this De Graafschap vs NAC Breda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
NAC Breda make the trip to Stadion De Vijverberg to face De Graafschap in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3. The match kicks off on Friday 20 August 2021 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
De Graafschap (all games): 1W 0D 1L across 2 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
NAC Breda have collected 1.00 PPG across 2 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 0W 2D 0L. Last five: D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. NAC Breda have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in De Graafschap's favour (1.50 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 0.87 xG and NAC Breda 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.833 / defence 1.318 | NAC Breda attack 0.908 / defence 1.294. League average goals — home 0.808 / away 1.525. NAC Breda bring a strong defensive rating of 1.294 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 2 De Graafschap games / 2 NAC Breda games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 17% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 59%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 5.88 | Draw 4.35 | NAC Breda 1.69. The model has a clear lean to NAC Breda (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, NAC Breda are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form De Graafschap (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.70 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs NAC Breda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 20 Aug 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 17% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 49% | xG De Graafschap 0.87 / NAC Breda 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.833 / def 1.318 | NAC Breda attack 0.908 / def 1.294 | league avg home 0.808 / away 1.525 • Poisson stance: NAC Breda (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.87
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.82
NAC Breda xG
49%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kick off?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 August 2021 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
De Graafschap 2 - 0 NAC Breda.
Where is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda part of?
De Graafschap vs NAC Breda is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 17% chance of winning, NAC Breda a 59% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making NAC Breda the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both De Graafschap and NAC Breda will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs NAC Breda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 1W-0D-1L in 2 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W. NAC Breda (all comps): 0W-2D-0L in 2 | 1.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.83x the league average against NAC Breda's defence at 1.29x — combine the two and it projects 0.87 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — NAC Breda's attack (0.91x) against De Graafschap's defence (1.32x) — and the away total comes out at 1.82.
The sample (2/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-2 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
NAC Breda Win
17%
5.84
23%
4.27
59%
1.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.2%
Away win
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.87
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
2.70
1.82
NAC Breda xG
5.84
17%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
1.68
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
16%
6.20
42%
2.39
Win to Nil
3%
36.22
25%
4.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.6 | 4.7 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and NAC Breda expected to score?
The model projects 0.87 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.82 for NAC Breda, a combined total of 2.70.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs NAC Breda?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
De Graafschap come into this having played 2 games, going 1W 0D 1L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads L-W. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, NAC Breda sit at 1.00 PPG from 2 outings (0W 2D 0L), a run that reads D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for NAC Breda, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
De Graafschap are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; NAC Breda are on 2.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: NAC Breda in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
NAC Breda
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and NAC Breda in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 1W 0D 1L in their last 2 games (1.50 PPG), while NAC Breda have gone 0W 2D 0L in their last 2 (1.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, De Graafschap have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against NAC Breda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
NAC Breda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and NAC Breda?
From 6 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, NAC Breda have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and NAC Breda last play each other?
They last met on 2 February 2024, when NAC Breda 0-0 De Graafschap.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / NAC Breda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play NAC Breda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of De Graafschap's games and 100% of NAC Breda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs NAC Breda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of De Graafschap's matches and 100% of NAC Breda's.
Do De Graafschap and NAC Breda tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, NAC Breda in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
De Graafschap cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over NAC Breda.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat NAC Breda 2-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 3, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 0.87 xG and NAC Breda 1.82 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. De Graafschap beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. NAC Breda landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.83 / defence 1.32 against NAC Breda attack 0.91 / defence 1.29, drawn from 2/2 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 17% | Draw 23% | NAC Breda 59%, with NAC Breda to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a De Graafschap win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 100%, NAC Breda 100%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. De Graafschap conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. NAC Breda managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.