De Graafschap 0-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates De Graafschap at 37% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Jong AZ travel to Stadion De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Friday 4 March 2022, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 2W 5D 3L at Stadion De Vijverberg — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.10 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion De Vijverberg this season.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 1W 1D 8L from 10 outings — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jong AZ, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
De Graafschap are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, De Graafschap have won 0, Jong AZ 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 13 Sep 2021, ended 1–2 with Jong AZ winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 44% versus Jong AZ 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 59% | Jong AZ 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 1.00 xG and Jong AZ 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.699 / defence 1.005 | Jong AZ attack 0.598 / defence 1.221. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.436. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.699 is below the league average — the 1.00 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.221 — this is suppressing De Graafschap's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 De Graafschap games / 27 Jong AZ games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 37% | Draw 33% | Jong AZ 30%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 2.70 | Draw 3.03 | Jong AZ 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.86. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.86 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 37% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.86 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 29% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Jong AZ 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 4 Mar 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 37% | Draw 33% | Jong AZ 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 37% | xG De Graafschap 1.00 / Jong AZ 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.699 / def 1.005 | Jong AZ attack 0.598 / def 1.221 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.436 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Jong AZ xG
37%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 4 March 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 0 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 37% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 30% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 0W | Draws 0 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.70x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
37%
2.68
33%
3.07
30%
3.32
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.5%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
1.86
0.86
Jong AZ xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.32
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
16%
6.35
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.5 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.3%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for De Graafschap and 0.86 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 1.86.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 27 games, going 13W 7D 7L for 1.70 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-D-D. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 0.93 PPG from 27 outings (7W 4D 16L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong AZ is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 4W 5D 4L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 0.54 points per game from 13 outings (2W 1D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, De Graafschap come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 0.89 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Blended
Jong AZ
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 13W 7D 7L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 7W 4D 16L in their last 27 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.31 PPG; Jong AZ away: 0.54 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Jong AZ been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Jong AZ in 15%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when De Graafschap 5-0 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 46%, Jong AZ 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (De Graafschap) and 46% (Jong AZ).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; De Graafschap have failed to score in 31% of games; Jong AZ in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong AZ?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 46% of Jong AZ's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of De Graafschap's recent games and 46% of Jong AZ's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 46% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at De Graafschap's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap and Jong AZ finished level at 0-0 at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 29, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 1.00 xG and Jong AZ 0.86 xG, a combined 1.86. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. De Graafschap fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.70 / defence 1.00 against Jong AZ attack 0.60 / defence 1.22, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 37% | Draw 33% | Jong AZ 30%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 59%, Jong AZ 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jong AZ's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.70 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. De Graafschap (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.