De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates De Graafschap at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Jong AZ encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Jong AZ travel to De Vijverberg to take on De Graafschap. The game is scheduled for Monday 17 August 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, De Graafschap have posted 5W 2D 3L at De Vijverberg — 1.70 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong AZ have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong AZ have posted 5W 0D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: De Graafschap 1.30 PPG, Jong AZ 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. De Graafschap register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Jong AZ in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
De Graafschap hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 6 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 1 for Jong AZ, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 5–0 with De Graafschap winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both De Graafschap and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Jong AZ in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 79% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 54%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — De Graafschap 74% and Jong AZ 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (De Graafschap 67% | Jong AZ 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 2.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.51 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 1.121 / defence 0.991 | Jong AZ attack 1.044 / defence 1.112. League average goals — home 1.677 / away 1.461. Data: 39 De Graafschap games / 39 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 51% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 28%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Jong AZ 3.57. De Graafschap hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.60. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.60 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.09 / 1.51) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is De Graafschap at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.60 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 70% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 70% | Jong AZ 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Monday 17 Aug 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 51% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG De Graafschap 2.09 / Jong AZ 1.51 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 1.121 / def 0.991 | Jong AZ attack 1.044 / def 1.112 | league avg home 1.677 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.51
Jong AZ xG
68%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kick off?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ kicked off at 18:00 on Monday 17 August 2026 at De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
De Graafschap 2 - 5 Jong AZ.
Where is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ part of?
De Graafschap vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 51% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 28% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both De Graafschap and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
Record (9 meetings): De Graafschap 6W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 1W.
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-D-D. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 1.12x the league average against Jong AZ's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.51 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 2-2 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
51%
1.96
21%
4.74
28%
3.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 2
6.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
3.60
1.51
Jong AZ xG
1.96
51%
Home win
4.74
21%
Draw
3.59
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
22%
4.53
12%
8.08
Win to Nil
11%
8.88
3%
29.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 4.1 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 9.0 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 2.2 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.7%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.51 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 3.60.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
De Graafschap come into this having played 39 games, going 17W 11D 11L for 1.59 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Jong AZ sit at 1.03 PPG from 39 outings (12W 4D 23L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.56 PPG clear of Jong AZ — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
De Graafschap's home form reads 9W 4D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong AZ have taken 1.37 points per game from 19 outings (8W 2D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
De Graafschap are averaging 1.92 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.56 scored and 1.97 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap have seen both teams score in 74% of their recent games.
Last 39 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 11L in their last 39 games (1.59 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 12W 4D 23L in their last 39 (1.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Jong AZ away?
De Graafschap's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.63 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.37 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 17 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Apr 2026, when De Graafschap won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
De Graafschap
2
Draws
2
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 6, Jong AZ have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 17 August 2026, when De Graafschap 2-5 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Jong AZ?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — De Graafschap at 74%, Jong AZ at 68%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for De Graafschap and 79% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 58% and 63% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 74% of De Graafschap's games and 68% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is De Graafschap vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of De Graafschap's matches and 79% of Jong AZ's.
Do De Graafschap and Jong AZ tend to score early?
De Graafschap have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Jong AZ run riot with a 2-5 hammering of De Graafschap.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat De Graafschap 2-5 at De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 2, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 2.09 xG and Jong AZ 1.51 xG, a combined 3.60. The scoreboard read 2-5 for 7 actual goals. Jong AZ outscored their 1.51 projection by 3.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 1.12 / defence 0.99 against Jong AZ attack 1.04 / defence 1.11, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 51% | Draw 21% | Jong AZ 28%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual Jong AZ win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 70%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 87% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 67%, Jong AZ 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.
Jong AZ's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.03. Form was overturned, with Jong AZ winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. De Graafschap (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.53 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jong AZ (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.