De Graafschap 1-1 Emmen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Emmen at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this De Graafschap vs Emmen encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 33 as De Graafschap welcome Emmen to Stadion De Vijverberg. Kick-off is set for Friday 1 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
De Graafschap's home record at Stadion De Vijverberg: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Emmen — All Games: 8W 1D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Emmen have posted 6W 3D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Emmen are 1.20 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for De Graafschap, 0 for Emmen and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–0 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Emmen in-play and half-time data (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — De Graafschap 44% versus Emmen 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (De Graafschap 56% | Emmen 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects De Graafschap 0.54 xG and Emmen 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: De Graafschap attack 0.621 / defence 1.122 | Emmen attack 0.849 / defence 0.687. League average goals — home 1.264 / away 1.435. De Graafschap's attack strength of 0.621 is below the league average — the 0.54 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Emmen's defence strength of 0.687 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 32 De Graafschap games / 32 Emmen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: De Graafschap 14% | Draw 29% | Emmen 57%. Fair-value odds: De Graafschap 7.14 | Draw 3.45 | Emmen 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Emmen (57%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.91. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.91 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — De Graafschap's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Emmen at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 1.91 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 32% on No. Form rates corroborate: De Graafschap 50% | Emmen 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: De Graafschap vs Emmen | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion De Vijverberg • Kick-off: Friday 1 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: De Graafschap 14% | Draw 29% | Emmen 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 32% | xG De Graafschap 0.54 / Emmen 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: De Graafschap attack 0.621 / def 1.122 | Emmen attack 0.849 / def 0.687 | league avg home 1.264 / away 1.435 • Poisson stance: Emmen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.54
De Graafschap xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Emmen xG
32%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does De Graafschap vs Emmen kick off?
De Graafschap vs Emmen kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 1 April 2022 at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What was the final score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
De Graafschap 1 - 1 Emmen.
Where is De Graafschap vs Emmen being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vijverberg.
What competition is De Graafschap vs Emmen part of?
De Graafschap vs Emmen is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our statistical model gives De Graafschap a 14% chance of winning, Emmen a 57% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both De Graafschap and Emmen will score (BTTS).
Will De Graafschap vs Emmen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Record (1 meetings): De Graafschap 1W | Draws 0 | Emmen 0W.
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in?
De Graafschap (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-L-L-W. Emmen (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates De Graafschap's attack at 0.62x the league average against Emmen's defence at 0.69x — combine the two and it projects 0.54 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Emmen's attack versus De Graafschap's defence, projects 1.37 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 18.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.3%), 0-2 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
14%
7.07
29%
3.45
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
20.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
0 – 2
13.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.54
De Graafschap xG
Total xG
1.91
1.37
Emmen xG
7.07
14%
Home win
3.45
29%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.17
68%
BTTS No
1.46
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
58%
1.71
Win to Nil
4%
27.72
33%
3.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 20.3 | 13.9 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.0 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 2.2 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are De Graafschap and Emmen expected to score?
The model projects 0.54 expected goals for De Graafschap and 1.37 for Emmen, a combined total of 1.91.
How confident is the prediction model for De Graafschap vs Emmen?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
De Graafschap's recent record stands at 14W 8D 10L from 32 games, a 1.56 PPG return, with D-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Emmen, meanwhile, have gone 22W 4D 6L across 32 games — 2.19 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Emmen by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over De Graafschap heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, De Graafschap have managed 4W 6D 6L from 16 games — 1.12 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 1.56 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Emmen's away record stands at 10W 4D 2L across 16 trips, a 2.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
De Graafschap are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Emmen are on 1.69 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Emmen in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
De Graafschap
Current Season
Emmen
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are De Graafschap and Emmen in coming into this match?
De Graafschap have gone 14W 8D 10L in their last 32 games (1.56 PPG), while Emmen have gone 22W 4D 6L in their last 32 (2.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — De Graafschap at home or Emmen away?
Emmen's away record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — De Graafschap at home: 1.12 PPG; Emmen away: 2.12 PPG.
Have De Graafschap or Emmen been keeping clean sheets recently?
De Graafschap have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Emmen in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between De Graafschap and Emmen runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Emmen have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
De Graafschap's record when hosting Emmen specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
De Graafschap
1
Draws
5
Emmen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between De Graafschap and Emmen?
From 8 meetings on record, De Graafschap have won 2, Emmen have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did De Graafschap and Emmen last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between De Graafschap and Emmen?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
De Graafschap see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Emmen see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — De Graafschap 44%, Emmen 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (De Graafschap) and 38% (Emmen).
On the defensive side: De Graafschap keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Emmen in 44%; De Graafschap have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = De Graafschap home games / Emmen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when De Graafschap play Emmen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of De Graafschap's recent matches and 44% of Emmen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is De Graafschap vs Emmen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of De Graafschap's recent games and 38% of Emmen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
De Graafschap and Emmen share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion De Vijverberg, Regular Season - 33, as De Graafschap and Emmen drew 1-1 in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting De Graafschap 0.54 xG and Emmen 1.37 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of De Graafschap attack 0.62 / defence 1.12 against Emmen attack 0.85 / defence 0.69, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it De Graafschap 14% | Draw 29% | Emmen 57%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 57%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (De Graafschap 56%, Emmen 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
De Graafschap's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Emmen's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 2.19 PPG against 1.56. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.